Updated 9/23 at 10:30a with even more experts and picks; all predicted winners remain the same, with the exception of the outstanding drama category, where Mad Men has opened up a slight lead over Breaking Bad.

Who are the favorites heading into Sunday's big ceremony?

Sunday night, Jimmy Kimmel hosts the 64th Primetime Emmy Awards, which will be broadcast live coast-to-coast on ABC beginning at 8p ET / 5p PT. This year's nominees include usual suspects like Modern Family and Mad Men as well as newcomers such as American Horror Story and Homeland.

Which of these shows will be busy collecting trophies on Sunday evening? To get an idea of the likely winners in each of 22 categories, we have tabulated the predictions of over 30 professional "experts," including awards show followers, television writers, and critics. Earlier this summer we also asked our users to make their own picks, and results from their nearly 2,400 votes are also included below. For what it's worth, neither group was very reliable last year; the top expert had a 63% accuracy rate, while the user consensus was wrong slightly more often than it was right. Perhaps this year will be different.

The experts included in our survey this year are: Cory Barker (TV.com), Chuck Barney (Contra Costa Times), Robert Bianco* (USA Today), Jesse Carp (Cinema Blend), Eric Deggans (Tampa Bay Times), Lynn Elber* (Associated Press), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Maria Elena Fernandez (The Daily Beast), Daniel Fienberg (HitFix), Maggie Furlong* (Huffington Post), Verne Gay (Newsday), Tim Goodman (The Hollywood Reporter), Elena Howe* (Los Angeles Times), Jace Lacob (The Daily Beast), Oliver Lyttelton (The Playlist), Daniel Manu* (Television Without Pity), Bruce Miller (Sioux City Journal), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Joanne Ostrow (Denver Post), Vinnie Penn (MSN TV), Gail Pennington (St. Louis Post-Dispatch), Rick Porter* (Zap2It), Ray Richmond (Deadline), Matt Roush* (TV Guide), Maureen Ryan* (Huffington Post), Alan Sepinwall (HitFix), Jill Serjeant* (Reuters), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Alex Strachan (Postmedia News), Ken Tucker* (Entertainment Weekly), Kristi Turnquist (The Oregonian), and Glenn Whipp (The Envelope/Los Angeles Times).

* Predictions made at goldderby.com
Note that some experts did not make predictions in every category. Click on any link above to view individual predictions.

Comedy nominees

While it seems obvious to most observers that Modern Family will take home its third consecutive Emmy for best comedy series, deciding which of that show's actors will get rewarded this year is a dicier proposition (in that you may as well roll some dice to pick which ones will win this time). Both experts and users give Louis C.K. a slight edge in the lead actor competition, thinking, perhaps, that Emmy voters will use the award as a consolation prize for failing to nominate his show (Louie) for best comedy series. (He also has a fighting chance in the directing and writing categories.) While users feel that Amy Poehler will finally get rewarded for her excellent work on Parks and Recreation, experts know that Emmy voters cannot resist Julia Louis-Dreyfus; if the latter wins, it will be for the third time, across three different shows.

Outstanding Comedy Series			Experts			Users
30 Rock NBC			0%			7%
The Big Bang Theory CBS			0%			13%
Curb Your Enthusiasm HBO			0%			9%
Girls HBO			3%			14%
Modern Family ABC			97%			54%
Veep HBO			0%			3%
Comedy Lead Actor			Experts			Users
Alec Baldwin 30 Rock			0%			11%
Don Cheadle House of Lies			9%			4%
Louis C.K. Louie			47%			46%
Jon Cryer Two and a Half Men			0%			3%
Larry David Curb Your Enthusiasm			3%			7%
Jim Parsons The Big Bang Theory			41%			30%
Comedy Lead Actress			Experts			Users
Zooey Deschanel New Girl			6%			21%
Lena Dunham Girls			3%			12%
Edie Falco Nurse Jackie			0%			4%
Tina Fey 30 Rock			0%			12%
Julia Louis-Dreyfus Veep			72%			16%
Melissa McCarthy Mike & Molly			3%			5%
Amy Poehler Parks and Recreation			16%			30%
Comedy Supporting Actor			Experts			Users
Ty Burrell Modern Family			32%			35%
Jesse Tyler Ferguson Modern Family			0%			10%
Ed O'Neill Modern Family			43%			19%
Max Greenfield New Girl			7%			13%
Bill Hader Saturday Night Live			4%			13%
Eric Stonestreet Modern Family			14%			9%
Comedy Supporting Actress			Experts			Users
Mayim Bialik The Big Bang Theory			11%			16%
Julie Bowen Modern Family			36%			18%
Kathryn Joosten Desperate Housewives			18%			5%
Sofia Vergara Modern Family			14%			27%
Merritt Wever Nurse Jackie			0%			4%
Kristen Wiig Saturday Night Live			21%			28%
Comedy Writing			Experts			Users
Community "Remedial Chaos Theory" by Chris McKenna			0%			31%
Girls "Pilot" by Lena Dunham			56%			21%
Louie "Pregnant" by Louis C.K.			22%			27%
Parks and Recreation "The Debate" by Amy Poehler			11%			17%
Parks and Recreation "Win, Lose, or Draw" by Michael Schur			11%			4%
Comedy Directing			Experts			Users
Curb Your Enthusiasm "Palestinian Chicken" dir. by Robert B. Weide			25%			12%
Girls "She Did" dir. by Lena Dunham			0%			12%
Louie "Duckling" dir. by Louis C.K.			63%			35%
Modern Family "Baby On Board" dir. by Steven Levitan			13%			20%
Modern Family "Virgin Territory" dir. by Jason Winer			0%			11%
New Girl "Pilot" dir. by Jake Kasdan			0%			9%

Drama nominees

While Mad Men has owned the outstanding drama series category in recent years, it faces even tougher competition this time as it goes for its fifth straight victory. Both experts and users suggest that the ever-building buzz for Breaking Bad might finally tempt Emmy voters to switch their votes to that show, while the additions of Downton Abbey (previously eligible in the miniseries category) and Homeland serve as additional wildcards. The lead acting categories seem set—Bryan Cranston should collect his fourth trophy in four tries for Breaking Bad, while if anyone other than Claire Danes wins in her category, it'll be a major upset—and if the experts are correct, there is little suspense in the supporting categories, too (though our users think otherwise).

Outstanding Drama Series			Experts			Users
Boardwalk Empire HBO			0%			2%
Breaking Bad AMC			31%			51%
Downton Abbey PBS			13%			6%
Game of Thrones HBO			0%			13%
Homeland Showtime			19%			10%
Mad Men AMC			38%			18%
Drama Lead Actor			Experts			Users
Hugh Bonneville Downton Abbey			3%			3%
Steve Buscemi Boardwalk Empire			0%			6%
Bryan Cranston Breaking Bad			81%			74%
Michael C. Hall Dexter			0%			3%
Jon Hamm Mad Men			6%			9%
Damian Lewis Homeland			9%			7%
Drama Lead Actress			Experts			Users
Kathy Bates Harry's Law			0%			3%
Glenn Close Damages			3%			4%
Claire Danes Homeland			91%			60%
Michelle Dockery Downton Abbey			3%			8%
Julianna Margulies The Good Wife			3%			8%
Elisabeth Moss Mad Men			0%			17%
Drama Supporting Actor			Experts			Users
Jim Carter Downton Abbey			0%			2%
Brendan Coyle Downton Abbey			0%			3%
Peter Dinklage Game of Thrones			4%			33%
Giancarlo Esposito Breaking Bad			67%			33%
Jared Harris Mad Men			15%			6%
Aaron Paul Breaking Bad			15%			23%
Drama Supporting Actress			Experts			Users
Christine Baranski The Good Wife			0%			4%
Joanne Froggatt Downton Abbey			0%			3%
Anna Gunn Breaking Bad			4%			30%
Christina Hendricks Mad Men			21%			30%
Archie Panjabi The Good Wife			4%			3%
Maggie Smith Downton Abbey			71%			30%
Drama Writing			Experts			Users
Downton Abbey "Episode 7" by Julian Fellowes			50%			13%
Homeland "Pilot" by Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, and Gideon Raff			30%			40%
Mad Men "Commissions And Fees" by Andre Jacquemetton and Maria Jacquemetton			0%			12%
Mad Men "Far Away Places" by Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner			0%			16%
Mad Men "The Other Woman" by Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner			20%			18%
Drama Directing			Experts			Users
Boardwalk Empire "To The Lost" dir. by Tim Van Patten			10%			8%
Breaking Bad "Face Off" dir. by Vince Gilligan			20%			58%
Downton Abbey "Episode 7" dir. by Brian Percival			10%			8%
Homeland "Pilot" dir. by Michael Cuesta			60%			14%
Mad Men "The Other Woman" dir. by Phil Abraham			0%			12%

Movie and miniseries nominees

While users give a slight edge to UK import Sherlock, many experts suggest that the topicality of the election-themed Game Change (as well as its HBO-ness, of course) would win the day. Two of the latter's stars seem locks in their acting categories, while the former's Benedict Cumberbatch is favored by experts and users alike to win his first Emmy in his first attempt.

Outstanding Movie or Miniseries			Experts			Users
American Horror Story FX			8%			29%
Game Change HBO			50%			15%
Hatfields & McCoys History			25%			13%
Hemingway & Gellhorn HBO			0%			4%
Luther BBC America			4%			8%
Sherlock: Scandal In Belgravia PBS			13%			31%
Movie / Miniseries Lead Actor			Experts			Users
Kevin Costner Hatfields & McCoys			29%			15%
Benedict Cumberbatch Sherlock			47%			33%
Idris Elba Luther			0%			20%
Woody Harrelson Game Change			18%			17%
Clive Owen Hemingway & Gellhorn			6%			8%
Bill Paxton Hatfields & McCoys			0%			6%
Movie / Miniseries Lead Actress			Experts			Users
Connie Britton American Horror Story			0%			26%
Ashley Judd Missing			0%			6%
Nicole Kidman Hemingway & Gellhorn			0%			16%
Julianne Moore Game Change			100%			45%
Emma Thompson The Song of Lunch			0%			7%
Movie / Miniseries Supporting Actor			Experts			Users
Tom Berenger Hatfields & McCoys			0%			12%
Martin Freeman Sherlock			7%			35%
Ed Harris Game Change			93%			32%
Denis O'Hare American Horror Story			0%			16%
David Strathairn Hemingway & Gellhorn			0%			5%
Movie / Miniseries Supporting Actress			Experts			Users
Frances Conroy American Horror Story			0%			12%
Judy Davis Page Eight			0%			7%
Jessica Lange American Horror Story			100%			56%
Sarah Paulson Game Change			0%			15%
Mare Winningham Hatfields & McCoys			0%			11%
Movie / Miniseries Directing			Experts			Users
Game Change dir. by Jay Roach			83%			24%
Hatfields & McCoys dir. by Kevin Reynolds			17%			20%
Hemingway & Gellhorn dir. by Philip Kaufman			0%			9%
Luther dir. by Sam Miller			0%			13%
Sherlock dir. by Paul McGuigan			0%			35%

Other shows

Another year, another victory for The Amazing Race and The Daily Show? The latter is going for its 10th straight win, while the former can win its ninth trophy in 10 tries, and it seems like there is little standing in the way of either show.

Outstanding Reality Competition			Experts			Users
The Amazing Race CBS			84%			42%
Dancing with the Stars ABC			0%			7%
Project Runway Lifetime			0%			6%
So You Think You Can Dance Fox			5%			7%
Top Chef Bravo			5%			16%
The Voice NBC			5%			22%
Outstanding Variety Series			Experts			Users
The Colbert Report Comedy Central			0%			16%
The Daily Show w/ Jon Stewart Comedy Central			93%			47%
Jimmy Kimmel Live ABC			7%			8%
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon NBC			0%			10%
Real Time with Bill Maher HBO			0%			4%
Saturday Night Live NBC			0%			16%

After the ceremony

On Monday morning, we'll return with a full list of winners, and a look at which experts and users had the most accurate predictions. We'll also sample the responses from TV critics to this year's broadcast.