2011 Emmy Predictions from Experts and Users

  • Comments: ↓ 5 user comments
  • Publish Date: September 15, 2011

Who are the frontrunners heading into Sunday's ceremony?

Image

The 63rd Primetime Emmy Awards are just a few days away—they air live on Sunday night at 8p ET on Fox in a ceremony hosted by Jane Lynch—and while several races are still very much up in the air, many others have clear favorites.

To determine just who those frontrunners are, we have tabulated the predictions of two dozen professional "experts"—awards show followers, television writers, and critics—in 16 major Emmy categories. This summer, we also invited Metacritic users to make their own Emmy predictions, and 2,005 of you did so; those results, too, are displayed below.

The experts surveyed include: Associated Press* (Frazier Moore), Baltimore Sun (Jordan Bartel), Contra Costa Times (Chuck Barney), Entertainment Weekly (Ken Tucker), Gold Derby (Paul Sheehan), Gold Derby (Tom O'Neill), HitFix (Alan Sepinwall), HitFix (Daniel Fienberg), IMDb* (Melanie McFarland), New York Post (Maxine Shen), Newsday (Verne Gay), Philadelphia Inquirer (Jonathan Storm), Reuters* (Jill Serjeant), St. Petersburg Times (Eric Deggans), Television Without Pity, The Daily Beast (Maria Elena Fernandez), The Daily Beast* (Jace Lacob), The Hollywood Reporter (Tim Goodman), The Hollywood Reporter* (Tim Appelo), TV Addict, TV Guide (Joyce Eng), TVLine* (Michael Ausiello) Vulture, and Zap2It* (Rick Porter).

* Predictions made at goldderby.com
Note that some experts did not make predictions in every category. Click on any link above to view individual predictions.

Comedy nominees

Experts and users were in sync with all of the major comedy categories with the exception of lead actress; there, the pros decided that the Academy will have a hard time resisting film star Laura Linney, while users gave Parks & Rec star Amy Poehler the advantage. Meanwhile, Steve Carell appears to be a lock to get his first Emmy win in five attempts, while Modern Family looks likely to repeat as the comedy series winner.

Outstanding Comedy Series   Experts     Users
The Big Bang Theory
CBS
  0%     10% bar
Glee
Fox
  0%     5% bar
Modern Family
ABC
Image 91% bar   51% bar
The Office
NBC
  4% bar   7% bar
Parks & Recreation
NBC
  4% bar   18% bar
30 Rock
NBC
  0%     8% bar
 
Comedy Lead Actor   Experts     Users
Alec Baldwin
30 Rock
  0%     13% bar
Steve Carell
The Office
100% bar   44% bar
Louis C.K.
Louie
  0%     19% bar
Johnny Galecki
The Big Bang Theory
  0%     3% bar
Matt LeBlanc
Episodes
  0%     3% bar
Jim Parsons
The Big Bang Theory
  0%     17% bar
 
Comedy Lead Actress   Experts     Users
Edie Falco
Nurse Jackie
  0%     10% bar
Tina Fey
30 Rock
  0%     27% bar
Laura Linney
The Big C
63% bar   18% bar
Melissa McCarthy
Mike & Molly
  4% bar   4% bar
Martha Plimpton
Raising Hope
  8% bar   4% bar
Amy Poehler
Parks and Recreation
25% bar   37% bar
 
Comedy Supporting Actor   Experts     Users
Ty Burrell
Modern Family
50% bar   32% bar
Chris Colfer
Glee
  25% bar   20% bar
Jon Cryer
Two and a Half Men
  0%     11% bar
Jesse Tyler Ferguson
Modern Family
  10% bar   6% bar
Ed O'Neill
Modern Family
  10% bar   19% bar
Eric Stonestreet
Modern Family
  5% bar   13% bar
 
Comedy Supporting Actress   Experts     Users
Julie Bowen
Modern Family
  10% bar   13% bar
Jane Lynch
Glee
40% bar   31% bar
Jane Krakowski
30 Rock
  0%     8% bar
Sofia Vergara
Modern Family
  15% bar   23% bar
Betty White
Hot in Cleveland
  30% bar   10% bar
Kristen Wiig
Saturday Night Live
  5% bar   15% bar

Drama nominees

The drama competition is likely a two-horse race between Mad Men and Boardwalk Empire, with the former the strong favorite to earn its fourth consecutive trophy. That show's Jon Hamm is also on track to pick up his first Emmy, while, in the lead actress category, both experts and (to a lesser degree) users feel that the Academy will make up for last year's snub of Good Wife star Julianna Margulies. Metacritic users and professional pundits did not agree on either supporting category, though Justified's Margo Martindale was the overwhelming supporting actress choice of the experts.

Outstanding Drama Series   Experts     Users
Boardwalk Empire
HBO
  17% bar   23% bar
Dexter
Showtime
  0%     6% bar
Friday Night Lights
NBC/DirecTV
  4% bar   6% bar
Game of Thrones
HBO
  4% bar   29% bar
The Good Wife
CBS
  0%     4% bar
Mad Men
AMC
74% bar   32% bar
 
Drama Lead Actor   Experts     Users
Steve Buscemi
Boardwalk Empire
  13% bar   30% bar
Kyle Chandler
Friday Night Lights
  4% bar   8% bar
Michael C. Hall
Dexter
  0%     14% bar
Jon Hamm
Mad Men
83% bar   31% bar
Hugh Laurie
House
  0%     8% bar
Timothy Olyphant
Justified
  0%     9% bar
 
Drama Lead Actress   Experts     Users
Kathy Bates
Harry's Law
  13% bar   7% bar
Connie Britton
Friday Night Lights
  8% bar   11% bar
Mireille Enos
The Killing
  0%     19% bar
Mariska Hargitay
Law & Order: SVU
  0%     4% bar
Julianna Margulies
The Good Wife
75% bar   32% bar
Elisabeth Moss
Mad Men
  4% bar   26% bar
 
Drama Supporting Actor   Experts     Users
Andre Braugher
Men of a Certain Age
  10% bar   5% bar
Josh Charles
The Good Wife
  5% bar   3% bar
Alan Cumming
The Good Wife
35% bar   9% bar
Peter Dinklage
Game of Thrones
15% bar   53% bar
Walton Goggins
Justified
  25% bar   9% bar
John Slattery
Mad Men
  10% bar   21% bar
 
Drama Supporting Actress   Experts     Users
Christine Baranski
The Good Wife
  5% bar   6% bar
Michelle Forbes
The Killing
  5% bar   12% bar
Christina Hendricks
Mad Men
0%     28% bar
Margo Martindale
Justified
65% bar   20% bar
Kelly Macdonald
Boardwalk Empire
  20% bar   25% bar
Archie Panjabi
The Good Wife
  5% bar   9% bar

Movie and miniseries nominees

Users and experts were mostly in agreement in the movie/miniseries categories, with both groups thinking that HBO's Mildred Pierce—and, with even more certainty, its star Kate Winslet—will take home Emmys. While Downton Abbey's Maggie Smith appears to be headed to victory in the supporting actress category, the two male acting awards seem to be much closer races, with two candidates ahead of the pack in both categories.

Outstanding Movie or Miniseries   Experts     Users
Cinema Verite
HBO
  0%     3% bar
Downton Abbey
PBS
  43% bar   22% bar
The Kennedys
Reelz
  0%     14% bar
Mildred Pierce
HBO
57% bar   40% bar
The Pillars of the Earth
Starz
  0%     11% bar
Too Big to Fail
HBO
  0%     9% bar
 
Movie/Miniseries Lead Actor   Experts     Users
Idris Elba
Luther
30% bar   28% bar
Laurence Fishburne
Thurgood
  20% bar   8% bar
William Hurt
Too Big to Fail
  20% bar   16% bar
Greg Kinnear
The Kennedys
  0%     19% bar
Barry Pepper
The Kennedys
  0%     6% bar
Edgar Ramirez
Carlos
30% bar   22% bar
 
Movie/Miniseries Lead Actress   Experts     Users
Taraji P. Henson
Taken From Me
  0%     5% bar
Diane Lane
Cinema Verite
  0%     9% bar
Jean Marsh
Upstairs Downstairs
  0%     4% bar
Elizabeth McGovern
Downton Abbey
  0%     16% bar
Kate Winslet
Mildred Pierce
100% bar   67% bar
 
Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actor   Experts     Users
Paul Giamatti
Too Big to Fail
40% bar   35% bar
Brian F. O'Byrne
Mildred Pierce
  0%     6% bar
Guy Pearce
Mildred Pierce
50% bar   34% bar
Tom Wilkinson
The Kennedys
  0%     16% bar
James Woods
Too Big to Fail
  10% bar   9% bar
 
Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actress   Experts     Users
Eileen Atkins
Upstairs Downstairs
  0%     3% bar
Melissa Leo
Mildred Pierce
  20% bar   30% bar
Maggie Smith
Downton Abbey
60% bar   34% bar
Mare Winningham
Mildred Pierce
  0%     5% bar
Evan Rachel Wood
Mildred Pierce
  20% bar   28% bar

Reality and other categories

Last year was the first time in the history of the reality competition category that The Amazing Race did not win the award. This year, both experts and users give that show a decent chance of returning to glory, though it certainly isn't a lock to do so.

Outstanding Reality Competition   Experts     Users
The Amazing Race
CBS
31% bar   34% bar
American Idol
Fox
31% bar   17% bar
Dancing with the Stars
ABC
  8% bar   9% bar
Project Runway
Lifetime
  8% bar   6% bar
So You Think You Can Dance
Fox
  0%     11% bar
Top Chef
Bravo
  23% bar   24% bar

Most experts did not make predictions in the other categories (mainly writing and directing) that will be announced during Sunday's broadcast. Our users did offer their guesses in one of these contests, however, picking The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (with 44% of the vote) to repeat as winner in the Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series category.

 

Comments (5)

  • libno  

    Game of thrones is awesome.

  • Beau  

    Laura won't win.

  • getwellnow  

    Modern Family is good. Not great. In fact, it's lazy in a lot of ways (summing nearly episode up with a heartfelt voice over, making too many jokes about Cameron's prissiness). I'm bummed that Modern Family is probably going to win the Emmy for outstanding comedy. It may have funny moments, but I think shows like 30 Rock and Parks and Rec are more artistically outstanding AND are much funnier. I'm hoping for the upset. But I do take solace in knowing Two and 1/2 Men isn't in the running, because UGGGGH.

  • Shiira  

    It would be awesome if Martha Plimpton won. She was gone for such a long time, seemingly. I loved her in "Running on Empty" and the little-seen "Shy People". Thora Birch needs a sitcom. What the heck happened to her after "Ghost World"?

  • jeremologyy  

    hope Laura Linney gets it! she deserves it. and since Toni is unjustly excluded this year, it should definitely go to Laura.

What Our Users Are Talking About

  1. /feature/best-new-tv-shows-of-2014 Image
    The Best (and Worst) New TV Shows of 2014
    December 23, 2014 - 5 comments
    1. Duke_Challenger : Last Week Tonight 10/10 True Detective 9/10 Penny Dreadful 9/10 The Affair 9/10 Outlander 8/10 Review 8/10... Read »
    2. Spica : How To Get Away With Murder was the best new show and nothing else came close. I love how the story lines intertwine... Read »
    3. hunter_1957 : Mr. Dietz: You need to do your research. "The Affair" actually showed the alternate viewpoints of Ruth Wilson and... Read »
    4. cculley121 : Review Fargo True Detective Last Week Tonight Over the Garden Wall Broad City Silicon Valley BoJack Horseman... Read »
  2. /feature/best-video-games-of-2014 Image
    The Best Videogames of 2014
    December 22, 2014 - 12 comments
    1. HSPLazerz : Oh, and may I add it was only three actual NEW games that got 90+? Jesus **** christ. Read »
    2. HSPLazerz : Gaming is getting worse and worse. Just look at it, only 14 games that were 90+?! Seriously, the gaming industry is... Read »
    3. HappyThug : Oh wow, could you gets do this for user-reviews? That's what I'd be really interested in. Read »
  3. /feature/critics-pick-top-10-albums-of-2014 Image
    Best of 2014: Music Critic Top Ten Lists
    December 2, 2014 - 30 comments
    1. SwanSalt : 1. Stardeath And White Dwarfs - "Wastoid" 2. Mark Lanegan Band - "Phantom Radio" 3. Flying Lotus - " You're Dead!... Read »
  4. /feature/movie-awards-and-nominations-2014 Image
    Best of 2014: Film Awards & Nominations Scorecard
    December 1, 2014 - 6 comments
    1. sheldoncoooper : @JRath wanna share the best films you saw this year? Read »
  5. /feature/best-new-streaming-movies-and-tv-september-2014 Image
    What to Watch Now: Best New Streaming Movies & TV at Netflix, Amazon, iTunes, and Hulu
    September 18, 2014 - 3 comments
    1. willieaames : Most people, myself included, really enjoyed "Argo". The story is very exciting and I love the self effacing humor... Read »