Who are the frontrunners heading into Sunday's ceremony?
The 63rd Primetime Emmy Awards are just a few days away—they air live on Sunday night at 8p ET on Fox in a ceremony hosted by Jane Lynch—and while several races are still very much up in the air, many others have clear favorites.
To determine just who those frontrunners are, we have tabulated the predictions of two dozen professional "experts"—awards show followers, television writers, and critics—in 16 major Emmy categories. This summer, we also invited Metacritic users to make their own Emmy predictions, and 2,005 of you did so; those results, too, are displayed below.
The experts surveyed include: Associated Press* (Frazier Moore), Baltimore Sun (Jordan Bartel), Contra Costa Times (Chuck Barney), Entertainment Weekly (Ken Tucker), Gold Derby (Paul Sheehan), Gold Derby (Tom O'Neill), HitFix (Alan Sepinwall), HitFix (Daniel Fienberg), IMDb* (Melanie McFarland), New York Post (Maxine Shen), Newsday (Verne Gay), Philadelphia Inquirer (Jonathan Storm), Reuters* (Jill Serjeant), St. Petersburg Times (Eric Deggans), Television Without Pity, The Daily Beast (Maria Elena Fernandez), The Daily Beast* (Jace Lacob), The Hollywood Reporter (Tim Goodman), The Hollywood Reporter* (Tim Appelo), TV Addict, TV Guide (Joyce Eng), TVLine* (Michael Ausiello) Vulture, and Zap2It* (Rick Porter).
Comedy nominees
Experts and users were in sync with all of the major comedy categories with the exception of lead actress; there, the pros decided that the Academy will have a hard time resisting film star Laura Linney, while users gave Parks & Rec star Amy Poehler the advantage. Meanwhile, Steve Carell appears to be a lock to get his first Emmy win in five attempts, while Modern Family looks likely to repeat as the comedy series winner.
| Outstanding Comedy Series | Experts | Users | ||||
| The Big Bang Theory CBS |
0% | 10% |  |
|||
| Glee Fox |
0% | 5% | |
|||
| Modern Family ABC |
 |
91% |  |
51% | |
|
| The Office NBC |
4% | |
7% | |
||
| Parks & Recreation NBC |
4% | |
18% | |
||
| 30 Rock NBC |
0% | 8% | |
|||
| Comedy Lead Actor | Experts | Users | ||||
| Alec Baldwin 30 Rock |
0% | 13% | |
|||
| Steve Carell The Office |
 |
100% | |
44% | |
|
| Louis C.K. Louie |
0% | 19% | |
|||
| Johnny Galecki The Big Bang Theory |
0% | 3% | |
|||
| Matt LeBlanc Episodes |
0% | 3% | |
|||
| Jim Parsons The Big Bang Theory |
0% | 17% | |
|||
| Comedy Lead Actress | Experts | Users | ||||
| Edie Falco Nurse Jackie |
0% | 10% | |
|||
| Tina Fey 30 Rock |
0% | 27% | |
|||
| Laura Linney The Big C |
 |
63% | |
18% | |
|
| Melissa McCarthy Mike & Molly |
4% | |
4% | |
||
| Martha Plimpton Raising Hope |
8% | |
4% | |
||
| Amy Poehler Parks and Recreation |
 |
25% | |
37% | |
|
| Comedy Supporting Actor | Experts | Users | ||||
| Ty Burrell Modern Family |
 |
50% | |
32% | |
|
| Chris Colfer Glee |
25% | |
20% | |
||
| Jon Cryer Two and a Half Men |
0% | 11% | |
|||
| Jesse Tyler Ferguson Modern Family |
10% | |
6% | |
||
| Ed O'Neill Modern Family |
10% | |
19% | |
||
| Eric Stonestreet Modern Family |
5% | |
13% | |
||
| Comedy Supporting Actress | Experts | Users | ||||
| Julie Bowen Modern Family |
10% | |
13% | |
||
| Jane Lynch Glee |
 |
40% | |
31% | |
|
| Jane Krakowski 30 Rock |
0% | 8% | |
|||
| Sofia Vergara Modern Family |
15% | |
23% | |
||
| Betty White Hot in Cleveland |
30% | |
10% | |
||
| Kristen Wiig Saturday Night Live |
5% | |
15% | |
||
Drama nominees
The drama competition is likely a two-horse race between Mad Men and Boardwalk Empire, with the former the strong favorite to earn its fourth consecutive trophy. That show's Jon Hamm is also on track to pick up his first Emmy, while, in the lead actress category, both experts and (to a lesser degree) users feel that the Academy will make up for last year's snub of Good Wife star Julianna Margulies. Metacritic users and professional pundits did not agree on either supporting category, though Justified's Margo Martindale was the overwhelming supporting actress choice of the experts.
| Outstanding Drama Series | Experts | Users | ||||
| Boardwalk Empire HBO |
17% | |
23% | |
||
| Dexter Showtime |
0% | 6% | |
|||
| Friday Night Lights NBC/DirecTV |
4% | |
6% | |
||
| Game of Thrones HBO |
4% | |
29% | |
||
| The Good Wife CBS |
0% | 4% | |
|||
| Mad Men AMC |
 |
74% | |
32% | |
|
| Drama Lead Actor | Experts | Users | ||||
| Steve Buscemi Boardwalk Empire |
13% | |
30% | |
||
| Kyle Chandler Friday Night Lights |
4% | |
8% | |
||
| Michael C. Hall Dexter |
0% | 14% | |
|||
| Jon Hamm Mad Men |
|
83% | |
31% | |
|
| Hugh Laurie House |
0% | 8% | |
|||
| Timothy Olyphant Justified |
0% | 9% | |
|||
| Drama Lead Actress | Experts | Users | ||||
| Kathy Bates Harry's Law |
13% | |
7% | |
||
| Connie Britton Friday Night Lights |
8% | |
11% | |
||
| Mireille Enos The Killing |
0% | 19% | |
|||
| Mariska Hargitay Law & Order: SVU |
0% | 4% | |
|||
| Julianna Margulies The Good Wife |
 |
75% | |
32% | |
|
| Elisabeth Moss Mad Men |
4% | |
26% | |
||
| Drama Supporting Actor | Experts | Users | ||||
| Andre Braugher Men of a Certain Age |
10% | |
5% | |
||
| Josh Charles The Good Wife |
5% | |
3% | |
||
| Alan Cumming The Good Wife |
 |
35% | |
9% | |
|
| Peter Dinklage Game of Thrones |
 |
15% | |
53% | |
|
| Walton Goggins Justified |
25% | |
9% | |
||
| John Slattery Mad Men |
10% | |
21% | |
||
| Drama Supporting Actress | Experts | Users | ||||
| Christine Baranski The Good Wife |
5% | |
6% | |
||
| Michelle Forbes The Killing |
5% | |
12% | |
||
| Christina Hendricks Mad Men |
 |
0% | 28% | |
||
| Margo Martindale Justified |
 |
65% | |
20% | |
|
| Kelly Macdonald Boardwalk Empire |
20% | |
25% | |
||
| Archie Panjabi The Good Wife |
5% | |
9% | |
||
Movie and miniseries nominees
Users and experts were mostly in agreement in the movie/miniseries categories, with both groups thinking that HBO's Mildred Pierce—and, with even more certainty, its star Kate Winslet—will take home Emmys. While Downton Abbey's Maggie Smith appears to be headed to victory in the supporting actress category, the two male acting awards seem to be much closer races, with two candidates ahead of the pack in both categories.
| Outstanding Movie or Miniseries | Experts | Users | ||||
| Cinema Verite HBO |
0% | 3% | |
|||
| Downton Abbey PBS |
43% | |
22% | |
||
| The Kennedys Reelz |
0% | 14% | |
|||
| Mildred Pierce HBO |
 |
57% | |
40% | |
|
| The Pillars of the Earth Starz |
0% | 11% | |
|||
| Too Big to Fail HBO |
0% | 9% | |
|||
| Movie/Miniseries Lead Actor | Experts | Users | ||||
| Idris Elba Luther |
 |
30% | |
28% | |
|
| Laurence Fishburne Thurgood |
20% | |
8% | |
||
| William Hurt Too Big to Fail |
20% | |
16% | |
||
| Greg Kinnear The Kennedys |
0% | 19% | |
|||
| Barry Pepper The Kennedys |
0% | 6% | |
|||
| Edgar Ramirez Carlos |
 |
30% | |
22% | |
|
| Movie/Miniseries Lead Actress | Experts | Users | ||||
| Taraji P. Henson Taken From Me |
0% | 5% | |
|||
| Diane Lane Cinema Verite |
0% | 9% | |
|||
| Jean Marsh Upstairs Downstairs |
0% | 4% | |
|||
| Elizabeth McGovern Downton Abbey |
0% | 16% | |
|||
| Kate Winslet Mildred Pierce |
|
100% | |
67% | |
|
| Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actor | Experts | Users | ||||
| Paul Giamatti Too Big to Fail |
 |
40% | |
35% | |
|
| Brian F. O'Byrne Mildred Pierce |
0% | 6% | |
|||
| Guy Pearce Mildred Pierce |
 |
50% | |
34% | |
|
| Tom Wilkinson The Kennedys |
0% | 16% | |
|||
| James Woods Too Big to Fail |
10% | |
9% | |
||
| Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actress | Experts | Users | ||||
| Eileen Atkins Upstairs Downstairs |
0% | 3% | |
|||
| Melissa Leo Mildred Pierce |
20% | |
30% | |
||
| Maggie Smith Downton Abbey |
 |
60% | |
34% | |
|
| Mare Winningham Mildred Pierce |
0% | 5% | |
|||
| Evan Rachel Wood Mildred Pierce |
20% | |
28% | |
||
Reality and other categories
Last year was the first time in the history of the reality competition category that The Amazing Race did not win the award. This year, both experts and users give that show a decent chance of returning to glory, though it certainly isn't a lock to do so.
| Outstanding Reality Competition | Experts | Users | ||||
| The Amazing Race CBS |
 |
31% | |
34% | |
|
| American Idol Fox |
 |
31% | |
17% | |
|
| Dancing with the Stars ABC |
8% | |
9% | |
||
| Project Runway Lifetime |
8% | |
6% | |
||
| So You Think You Can Dance Fox |
0% | 11% | |
|||
| Top Chef Bravo |
23% | |
24% | |
||
Most experts did not make predictions in the other categories (mainly writing and directing) that will be announced during Sunday's broadcast. Our users did offer their guesses in one of these contests, however, picking The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (with 44% of the vote) to repeat as winner in the Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series category.
