(No) spoiler(s) alert

Well, there's not much suspense heading into this year's ceremony. The Artist will win best picture, best director, and duke it out with Hugo in the technical categories, while The Help will help itself to a pair of acting Oscars. At least, that is the overwhelming opinion of nearly every expert heading into the home stretch. With so many pundits predicting the same outcome in so many races this year, it makes any surprises that much more unlikely.

Sunday's 84th Annual Academy Awards ceremony will be televised live on ABC from the venue formerly known as the Kodak Theatre at 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT (with a red carpet pre-show beginning at 7 ET / 4 PT). Billy Crystal—a late replacement for Eddie Murphy—hosts this year's ceremony, returning to the gig he last held in 2004. Presenters will include Meryl Streep, Tom Cruise, Angelina Jolie, Will Ferrell, Zach Galifianakis, Tom Hanks, Tina Fey, Halle Berry, Bradley Cooper, Michael Douglas, Melissa McCarthy, Kristen Wiig, Maya Rudolph, Christian Bale, and Natalie Portman. (You won't be seeing Sacha Baron Cohen in any capacity, though; he's been banned from the show.)

Below, we've aggregated the predictions of 45 entertainment writers and awards experts, and compared them to the votes cast by the more than 2,100 Metacritic visitors who voted in our 3rd annual poll. Monday morning, we'll be back to see how accurate these guesses turned out to be, and we'll also have reviews of the broadcast.

Best picture and director

It's quite a challenge to find anyone who doesn't think that silent film The Artist is going to collect the best picture trophy on Sunday; every one of the 45 experts we surveyed picked that film to win, as did a huge majority of Metacritic users. According to betting website easyodds.com, the film with the next best chance at best picture glory is The Descendants, but even that title is listed as a 9-to-1 longshot. The Artist's dominance looks likely to extend into the directing category as well, with Michel Hazanavicius all but certain to take home his first Oscar. It should be noted, however, that most experts failed in their director predictions last year; if that happens again this year, expect either Alexander Payne or our users' second-favorite pick, Martin Scorsese, to win.

Best Picture			Experts			Users
The Artist 89			100%			70%
The Descendants 84			0%			11%
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close 46			0%			0%
The Help 62			0%			3%
Hugo 83			0%			8%
Midnight in Paris 81			0%			2%
Moneyball 87			0%			3%
The Tree of Life 85			0%			4%
War Horse 72			0%			1%

Best Director			Experts			Users
Woody Allen Midnight in Paris			2%			4%
Michel Hazanavicius The Artist			95%			48%
Terrence Malick The Tree of Life			0%			10%
Alexander Payne The Descendants			2%			9%
Martin Scorsese Hugo			0%			28%

Acting

While there is absolutely no suspense in either supporting actor category—Christopher Plummer and Octavia Spencer are probably rehearsing their speeches as you read this—the lead acting categories are each down to a pair of finalists. Experts give The Artist's Jean Dujardin a 2-to-1 edge over George Clooney, while Viola Davis has an even bigger lead over Margaret Thatcher impersonator Meryl Streep. If an Oscar presenter opens the envelope and reads a name other than one of those four on Sunday night, then consider anything possible in any of the other categories.

Lead Actor			Experts			Users
Demián Bichir A Better Life			0%			1%
George Clooney The Descendants			32%			40%
Jean Dujardin The Artist			66%			41%
Gary Oldman Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy			0%			10%
Brad Pitt Moneyball			2%			8%

Lead Actress			Experts			Users
Glenn Close Albert Nobbs			2%			3%
Viola Davis The Help			77%			41%
Rooney Mara The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo			0%			14%
Meryl Streep The Iron Lady			18%			32%
Michelle Williams My Week with Marilyn			2%			11%

Supporting Actor			Experts			Users
Kenneth Branagh My Week with Marilyn			0%			5%
Jonah Hill Moneyball			0%			11%
Nick Nolte Warrior			0%			8%
Christopher Plummer Beginners			100%			70%
Max von Sydow Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close			0%			5%

Supporting Actress			Experts			Users
Bérénice Bejo The Artist			2%			18%
Jessica Chastain The Help			0%			11%
Melissa McCarthy Bridesmaids			0%			10%
Janet McTeer Albert Nobbs			0%			1%
Octavia Spencer The Help			98%			60%

Writing

While last year's adapted screenplay winner Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) has a slim chance of repeating as part of the team behind Moneyball, look for the overwhelming favorite The Descendants to get the win, as it did last weekend at both the WGA Awards and the USC Scripter Awards. In the original screenplay category, while The Artist could slip in here too as part of its overall domination, look for Woody Allen both to win and to fail to show up to collect the trophy.

Original Screenplay			Experts			Users
Michel Hazanavicius The Artist			9%			29%
Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig Bridesmaids			2%			6%
JC Chandor Margin Call			0%			1%
Woody Allen Midnight in Paris			86%			53%
Asghar Farhadi A Separation			2%			11%

Adapted Screenplay			Experts			Users
Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash The Descendants			84%			49%
John Logan Hugo			5%			11%
George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon The Ides of March			0%			4%
Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin Moneyball			11%			25%
Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy			0%			11%

Animation

The Johnny Depp-starring Rango is the overwhelming favorite among a weak field of contenders to win the animated feature trophy. Last year, not a single expert correctly predicted the animated short category, so their pick of The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, that dialogue-free, New Orleans-set short film (which you can watch online) with allusions to classic cinema has already won numerous awards on the festival circuit, and seems to best represent the Academy's preferences this year. The animated short category is one of only four where our users diverged from the expert picks; their choice of La Luna is a Pixar creation, so it, too, is a solid choice. The wildcard is A Morning Stroll, which won the category at this year's BAFTAs.

Animated Feature			Experts			Users
A Cat in Paris			2%			4%
Chico & Rita			2%			5%
Kung Fu Panda 2			0%			7%
Puss in Boots			4%			6%
Rango			91%			78%

Animated Short			Experts			Users
Dimanche/Sunday			9%			10%
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore			60%			24%
La Luna			19%			35%
A Morning Stroll			12%			14%
Wild Life			0%			17%

Documentaries

Documentary feature is another category where experts and Metacritic users offered differing predictions. While the latter group preferred Wim Wenders' unconventional 3D look at the work of choreographer Pina Bausch, a plurality of experts forecast HBO's West Memphis Three doc Paradise Lost 3 (which was given a last-minute theatrical premiere with the intention of securing an Oscar nomination) to win the statuette. Those two films, incidentally, are also the favorites with bookmakers, followed by The Weinstein Company's Undefeated, which plays like a real-life Friday Night Lights. The documentary short category is not an easy one to predict, though experts were correct last year, and this year they (and our users) have settled on The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (from one of the directors of Waste Land), which examines the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The other frontrunner, Saving Face, looks at Pakistani women who have been disfigured by acid attacks, which is a bit more uplifting than it sounds, though still mostly horrifying.

Documentary Feature			Experts			Users
Hell and Back Again			11%			13%
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front			2%			12%
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory			42%			26%
Pina			20%			32%
Undefeated			24%			17%

Documentary Short Subject			Experts			Users
The Barber of Birmingham			5%			16%
God Is the Bigger Elvis			10%			18%
Incident in New Baghdad			7%			20%
Saving Face			38%			18%
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom			40%			28%

Other films

Critical acclaim and Oscar trophies don't always go hand in hand, but 2011's best-reviewed film, the Iranian drama A Separation, is the overwhelming favorite to win the foreign-language category. The live-action short category is another Oscar pool-buster, though this year appears to have a relatively clear frontrunner: The Shore, which boasts the biggest names of any of the entrants in two-time Oscar-nominated writer writer Terry George (Hotel Rwanda, In the Name of the Father) and star Ciaran Hinds. However, note that the recent trend is for humorous films to win in this category, which could hurt chances for both The Shore and Raju (and could really help Pentecost, the funniest of the bunch). Also making this category harder to predict this year is an expansion of the voting pool thanks to screenings of the five shorts at over 200 theaters nationwide. (Previously, just four screenings were held.)

Foreign-Language Film			Experts			Users
Bullhead			2%			3%
Footnote			0%			2%
In Darkness			4%			5%
Monsieur Lazhar			0%			3%
A Separation			93%			87%

Live-Action Short Film			Experts			Users
Pentecost			12%			17%
Raju			15%			20%
The Shore			54%			29%
Time Freak			5%			21%
Tuba Atlantic			15%			12%

Music

The music playing throughout a silent film might be a bit easier to notice and remember thanks to not having all that pesky dialogue get in the way; at any rate, most experts feel that the Academy will recognize The Artist composer Ludovic Bource on Sunday. And while no Muppets will be performing during the broadcast (though a few will present an award), their song "Man or Muppet" (penned by Flight of the Conchords member Bret McKenzie) is the expected winner in a depleted field. A few dissenters, however, think that music industry veteran Sergio Mendes could sneak in with his song from the animated film Rio.

Original Score			Experts			Users
John Williams The Adventures of Tintin			2%			7%
Ludovic Bource The Artist			84%			59%
Howard Shore Hugo			9%			14%
Alberto Iglesias Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy			0%			6%
John Williams War Horse			5%			14%

Original Song			Experts			Users
"Man or Muppet" The Muppets			88%			82%
"Real in Rio" Rio			12%			18%

Technical categories

Many of the remaining categories are shaping up to be a head-to-head battle between Hugo and The Artist, though the sound categories have War Horse as the closest competitor to Scorsese's film (both have already received awards from other organizations for their sound work), and experts give Rise of the Planet of the Apes the edge over Hugo in the visual effects category. In addition, Emmanuel Lubezki looks likely to win the Oscar for best cinematography for the first time in five tries for his work on The Tree of Life (even people who hated the film agreed that it looked great), while makeup artists on The Iron Lady are expected to be rewarded for transforming Meryl Streep into former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. The experts usually get a few of these categories wrong, so to succeed in your Oscar pool you'll need to take a chance on an underdog or two; then again, there seems to be more of a consensus in these categories than is typical.

Art Direction			Experts			Users
The Artist			7%			27%
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2			0%			15%
Hugo			93%			47%
Midnight in Paris			0%			6%
War Horse			0%			4%

Cinematography			Experts			Users
Guillaume Schiffman The Artist			16%			15%
Jeff Cronenweth The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo			0%			9%
Robert Richardson Hugo			14%			14%
Emmanuel Lubezki The Tree of Life			70%			53%
Janusz Kaminski War Horse			0%			8%

Costume Design			Experts			Users
Anonymous			12%			8%
The Artist			49%			45%
Hugo			23%			30%
Jane Eyre			14%			14%
W.E.			2%			4%

Film Editing			Experts			Users
The Artist			72%			34%
The Descendants			0%			7%
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo			5%			28%
Hugo			21%			22%
Moneyball			2%			9%

Makeup			Experts			Users
Albert Nobbs			9%			20%
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2			30%			51%
The Iron Lady			60%			29%

Sound Editing			Experts			Users
Drive			5%			35%
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo			7%			15%
Hugo			60%			25%
Transformers: Dark of the Moon			7%			12%
War Horse			21%			13%

Sound Mixing			Experts			Users
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo			2%			26%
Hugo			79%			35%
Moneyball			0%			6%
Transformers: Dark of the Moon			5%			18%
War Horse			14%			16%

Visual Effects			Experts			Users
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2			7%			27%
Hugo			21%			21%
Real Steel			0%			2%
Rise of the Planet of the Apes			72%			42%
Transformers: Dark of the Moon			0%			9%

List of experts

The expert predictions listed above come from the following sources:

• Thelma Adams, Yahoo**
• Brad Brevet, Rope of Silicon
• Anthony Breznican, USA Today*
• Kyle Buchanan and Bilge Ebiri, Vulture
• Ty Burr, Boston Globe
• JD Cargill, CNN**
• Richard Corliss, Time
• Edward Douglas, ComingSoon.net
• Gregory Ellwood, HitFix*
• Kevin Fallon, The Atlantic
• Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter
• Pete Hammond, Deadline Hollywood
• Mark Harris, Grantland
• Peter Hartlaub, San Francisco Chronicle
• Elena Howe, Los Angeles Times**
• Peter Howell, Toronto Star*
• Bradley Jacobs, US Magazine**
• Dave Karger, Entertainment Weekly
• Tariq Khan, Fox News**
• Peter Knegt, Indiewire
• Mick LaSalle, San Francisco Chronicle
• Kevin Lewin, WENN**
• Guy Lodge, In Contention**
• Wesley Morris, Boston Globe
• Michael Musto, Village Voice**
• Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby**
• Mark Olsen, Los Angeles Times*
• David Poland, Movie City News*
• Kevin Polowy, Next Movie**
• Steve Pond, The Wrap
• Christopher Rosen, Moviefone**
• Richard Rushfield, The Daily Beast**
• Mike Scott, New Orleans Times-Picayune
• Paul Sheehan, Gold Derby**
• Keith Simanton, IMDb**
• Jim Slotek, Toronto Sun
• Sasha Stone, Awards Daily**
• Kris Tapley, In Contention*
• Anne Thompson, Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire
• Peter Travers, Rolling Stone**
• S.T. VanAirsdale, MovieLine*
• Chuck Walton, Fandango**
• Jeff Wells, Hollywood Elsewhere**
• Dave White, Movies.com**
• Susan Wloszczyna, USA Today**

* As reported in Movie City News' Gurus O' Gold column
** As reported at Gold Derby as of February 22, 2012