Metascore Predictions for Summer's Biggest Films: The Final Results

  • Publish Date: September 2, 2011
  • Comments: ↓ 2 user comments

How close were you this year?

Median Guess vs. Actual Score
bar
Very Close
(+/- 0-4 points)
12 films / 40%
bar
Close
(+/- 5-9 points)
5 films / 17%
bar
Not Close
(+/- 10-24 points)
12 films / 40%
bar
So Very Wrong
(+/- 25 points or more)
1 film / 3%

The answer to that question is "a bit closer than last year." Remember, back in May, we asked our users to predict the Metascores for 30 of the summer's biggest film releases. It turns out that, on average, your median guesses were 9 points away from the actual Metascore for each film, a modest improvement over last year's 9.6 point difference.

Even better, however, was that our users got very close (within 4 points) for 12 of the 30 films, or twice as many as in 2010. And you were dead wrong on just one title: the Tom Hanks-directed Larry Crowne, which turned out to be far worse than expected. The film that users underestimated the most (by 20 points) was the comedy hit Bridesmaids, but, to be fair, that film took most industry experts by surprise.

Again, users proved to be a bit too optimistic when making predictions. Sixteen films (53%) ultimately scored lower than the median user guess, while 13 received higher scores from critics. But you were able to correctly identify the two worst films on our list of 30 (a tie between Zookeeper and The Smurfs) and narrowly missed identifying the summer's best-reviewed major release (which proved to be Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 rather than The Tree of Life, though it was very close).

You can see the spreads for each individual movie below, ranked from most accurate to least accurate.

Comparison of User Metascore Predictions vs. Actual Scores for Summer Movies
Movie Median Guess  Actual  Score Difference
Captain America: The First Avenger   66   66   0
Priest    40   41   1
Kung Fu Panda 2   68   67   -1
Bad Teacher   49   47   -2
Transformers: Dark of the Moon   44   42   -2
Horrible Bosses   55   57   2
X-Men: First Class   62   65   3
Super 8   75   72   -3
Mr. Popper's Penguins   50   53   3
Conan the Barbarian   40   36   -4
Our Idiot Brother   56   60   4
The Debt   62   66   4
Zookeeper    35   30   -5
The Smurfs   35   30   -5
Don't Be Afraid of the Dark   61   56   -5
Crazy, Stupid, Love.   62   68   6
The Tree of Life   77   85   8
The Change-Up   49.5   40   -10
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides   55   45   -10
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2   75   87   12
Friends with Benefits   50   63   13
Rise of the Planet of the Apes   55   68   13
Fright Night   51   64   13
Cars 2   74   57   -17
Cowboys & Aliens   67   50   -17
30 Minutes or Less   65   48   -17
The Hangover Part II   63   44   -19
Green Lantern   58   39   -19
Bridesmaids   55   75   20
Larry Crowne   66   41   -25

Comments (2)

  • DanBurrito  

    Why we're people pessimistic about Rise of the planet of the apes? I suppose critics DO tend to be a bit harsh so maybe that's why. Btw I'm REALLY surprised that viewers actually predicted reds for the smurfs and zookeeper, they'd normally predict movies like that would get like a 45.

  • conditionals  

    The last 10 or so entries on the list are awesome examples of films that either vastly exceeded or failed to match expectations. Oh, Green Lantern.

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