Looking for a sign

Around this time last year, we took an in-depth look at whether or not it was possible to predict the Oscar best picture winner based on a variety of different factors. Now, with the Academy Awards once again approaching, we re-visit the idea of predicting the best picture race, and also look at the front-runners for several other key categories.

Best picture

Below, we take a look at 27 different performance, quality, and award factors to see how well they can be used to predict the eventual best picture Oscar winner, based on results from the past decade. (The "% correct" column shows how often that a film meeting the stated criteria wins the best picture Oscar.) It turns out there is only one sure-fire way to eliminate a best picture nominee from consideration: If it didn't also get nominated for best director, best screenplay, and best film editing, the movie will not win best picture.

As you can see, the various guild awards are relatively decent predictors of the best picture winner, while taking top honors from film critic groups in Los Angeles, Toronto, and London almost always guarantees that the best picture Oscar will go to a different film. While The Social Network is the recipient of more honors than any other best picture nominee this year, it is The King's Speech that received the bulk of the significant industry awards -- at least as far as predicting the Oscars is concerned -- which gives the latter film the status of favorite heading into the Academy Awards ceremony later this month. Being a favorite of critics is more burden than benefit to would-be Oscar best picture winners.

Favorite: The King's Speech
Possible: The Social Network
Dark horse: The Fighter

Predictors for Best Picture Oscar

Predictor	% Correct, Past 10 Years		This Year's Pick
Also nominated for best director Oscar	100%		Films meeting all 3 criteria: The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network
Also nominated for ether screenplay Oscar	100%
Also nominated for film editing Oscar	100%
Film's director won DGA Award	80%		The King's Speech
BFCA Critics Choice Award Best Picture	80%		The Social Network
Film's producer(s) won PGA Award	60%		The King's Speech
Film's screenplay won WGA Award	60%		The Social Network / Inception
Vegas odds favorite Past 7 years only	57%		The King's Speech
Most total nominations among best pic nominees	50%		The King's Speech
Chicago Film Critics Association Best Picture	50%		The Social Network
Film grossed at least $100 million *	50%		Toy Story 3, Inception, True Grit **
SAG Award for Best Cast	50%		The King's Speech
BAFTA Best Picture	40%		The King's Speech
Golden Globe Winner (Best Picture - Drama)	40%		The Social Network
Boston Society of Film Critics Best Picture	40%		The Social Network
Best-reviewed nominee (highest Metascore)	30%		The Social Network
Highest-grossing nominee *	30%		Toy Story 3
Film with most acting nominations	30%		The King's Speech / The Fighter
New York Film Critics Circle Best Picture	30%		The Social Network
Online Film Critics Society Best Picture	30%		The Social Network
Southeastern Film Critics Association Best Picture	30%		The Social Network
Film is on most critic top 10 lists	20%		The Social Network
National Board of Review Best Picture	20%		The Social Network
National Society of Film Critics Best Picture	20%		The Social Network
London Critics’ Circle Best Picture	10%		The Social Network
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Best Picture	10%		The Social Network
Toronto Film Critics Association Best Picture	10%		The Social Network

* Based on domestic box office grosses just prior to each year's Academy Awards ceremony.
** Through February 14, 2011; Black Swan and The King's Speech also have a chance of reaching $100 million by the time of this year's Academy Awards ceremony on February 27.

Best director

The Directors Guild's pick for top feature film director is widely considered to be the front-runner to win the directing Oscar, for the simple reason that it is largely the same group of people voting for the two awards. Indeed, the DGA Award has been an accurate predictor of the Oscar race eight times in the past decade, including seven consecutive years. That reason alone gives Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) a strong shot at taking home the Academy Award, though The Social Network's David Fincher is certainly not out of the race. A few other predictors are listed below, though for this and the remaining Oscar categories, we have omitted the predictors in the 40-50% accuracy range, since they have little actual predictive value.

Favorite: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Possible: David Fincher, The Social Network
Dark horse: (none)

Most/Least Accurate Predictors for Best Director Oscar

Predictor	% Correct, Past 10 Years		This Year's Pick
First-time winner	90%		any except Coen brothers
DGA Award winner	80%		Tom Hooper
BFCA (Critics Choice Award) Best Director	80%		David Fincher
Chicago Film Critics Association Best Director	70%		David Fincher
Southeastern Film Critics Association Best Director	70%		David Fincher
Director's film also won WGA Award	70%		David Fincher
Highest-grossing film among director nominees	30%		Coen brothers
Director had best-reviewed film (highest Metascore)	30%		David Fincher
National Board of Review Best Director	30%		David Fincher
National Society of Film Critics Best Director	30%		David Fincher

Lead actor

While The King's Speech has all of the momentum heading into the Academy Awards ceremony, so does the film's star, Colin Firth. As the winner of most of the honors for lead actor handed out over the past few months -- including the SAG Award, which has mirrored the Oscar pick for six consecutive years, making it an even stronger predictor than it appears below -- Firth looks likely to add an Oscar trophy to his collection.

More good news for Firth: Over the past decade, when at least four of the five major critic organizations (LA, NY and Chicago critics, plus the National Society of Film Critics and the Broadcast Film Critics Association) have agreed on the year's best lead actor -- as they have this year with Firth -- that person has gone on to win the Oscar four out of five times. (The one exception is Bill Murray, who failed to win for Lost in Translation.)

Favorite: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Possible: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Dark horse: Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Most/Least Accurate Predictors for Actor in a Leading Role Oscar

Predictor	% Correct, Past 10 Years		This Year's Pick
Winner's film was also best picture nominee	70%		Everyone except Javier Bardem
Film's director was also nominated for Oscar	70%		Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth
BFCA (Critics Choice Award) Best Actor	70%		Colin Firth
Other actors were nominated from same film	60%		Jeff Bridges, Colin Firth
Boston Society of Film Critics Best Actor	60%		Jesse Eisenberg
Golden Globe Winner Best Actor (either one)	60%		Colin Firth
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Best Actor	60%		Colin Firth
SAG Award winner	60%**		Colin Firth
Chicago Film Critics Association Best Actor	30%		Colin Firth
New York Film Critics Circle Best Actor	30%		Colin Firth
Online Film Critics Society Best Actor	30%		Colin Firth
Toronto Film Critics Association Best Actor	10%		Jesse Eisenberg
Highest-grossing film among actor nominees *	0%		Jeff Bridges

* Based on domestic box office grosses at the time of each year's Academy Awards ceremony.
** The winner of the SAG Award has also won the Oscar in each of the past six years.

Lead actress

In just one year over the past decade -- 2006, when Helen Mirren was the runaway consensus pick and eventual Oscar winner -- the major critic organizations and award bodies agreed on a winner; in every other year, the picks for best actress were all over the map, making the contest tougher to predict. This year, however, is shaping up to be 2006 all over again, with Natalie Portman sweeping nearly every honor handed out so far.

Favorite: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Possible: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Dark horse: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Most/Least Accurate Predictors for Actress in a Leading Role Oscar

Predictor	% Correct, Past 10 Years		This Year's Pick
Golden Globe Winner Best Actress (either one)	90%		Bening, Portman
Winner portrayed a real-life person	70%		none
SAG Award winner	70%		Natalie Portman
Winner's film was also best picture nominee	60%		Bening, Lawrence, Portman
BAFTA Best Actress	60%		Natalie Portman
BFCA (Critics Choice Award)	60%		Natalie Portman
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Best Actress	30%		none *
National Board of Review Best Actress	30%		none *
Chicago Film Critics Association Best Actress	20%		Natalie Portman
New York Film Critics Circle Best Actress	20%		Annette Bening
Online Film Critics Society Best Actress	20%		Natalie Portman
Best-reviewed (highest Metascore)	10%		Jennifer Lawrence
Southeastern Film Critics Association Best Actress	10%		Natalie Portman
Toronto Film Critics Association Best Actress	10%		Jennifer Lawrence

* Winner of award was not nominated for the Oscar.

Supporting actor

The supporting actor category is not quite as close as it appears in the table below; Christian Bale is a clear favorite, thanks to winning most of the awards handed out so far, including key victories at the Golden Globe and SAG Awards. Though the latter isn't a reliable predictor -- the SAG winner matches the Oscar winner just 50% of the time over the past decade, the Golden Globes have been surprisingly accurate over the last ten years, failing to agree with the Academy just twice. A BAFTA victory does give Geoffrey Rush a bit of momentum heading into the home stretch -- as does the buzz surrounding his movie, The King's Speech -- but Bale remains the actor to beat.

Favorite: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Possible: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Dark horse: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Most/Least Accurate Predictors for Actor in a Supporting Role Oscar

Predictor	% Correct, Past 10 Years		This Year's Pick
Golden Globe Winner Best Supp. Actor	80%		Christian Bale
Winner's film was also best picture nominee	60%		All except Renner
Won as first-time acting nominee	60%		Bale, Hawkes, Ruffalo
BAFTA Best Supp. Actor	60%		Geoffrey Rush
Southeastern Film Critics Association Best Supp. Actor	60%		Geoffrey Rush
Boston Society of Film Critics Best Supp. Actor	30%		Christian Bale
New York Film Critics Circle Best Supp. Actor	30%		Mark Ruffalo
Online Film Critics Society Best Supp. Actor	30%		Christian Bale
Highest-grossing film among supp. actor nominees *	20%		Geoffrey Rush
National Board of Review Best Supp. Actor	20%		Christian Bale
National Society of Film Critics Best Supp. Actor	20%		Geoffrey Rush

* Based on domestic box office grosses at the time of each year's Academy Awards ceremony.

Supporting actress

The final acting category is perhaps the toughest to predict this year. The presumed favorite Melissa Leo, one of two actresses nominated for The Fighter, has had a successful awards season so far (including a SAG win), but only slightly more so than 14-year-old Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit. And, over the past decade, the Academy has shown a strong preference for first-time nominees like Steinfeld in this category, with rookies taking home the trophy in seven of the past 10 years. (Steinfeld's age also isn't a negative; two even younger actresses have won this award in the past.) And though the BAFTA Film Awards are a surprisingly accurate predictor in this category, they also tend to show a preference for British films and actors, which means that Carter's win there, while a momentum-builder, isn't a guarantee of Oscar success.

One negative for Steinfeld is being singled out by the Toronto critics; that group has a perfect record over the past decade of never agreeing with the Academy in this category. Similarly, her victory with the Chicago critics could be construed as a bad omen.

Favorite: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Possible: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Dark horse: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Most/Least Accurate Predictors for Actress in a Supporting Role Oscar

Predictor	% Correct, Past 10 Years		This Year's Pick
Other actors were nominated from same film	80%		All except Weaver
BAFTA Best Supp. Actress	80%		Helena Bonham Carter
Won as first-time acting nominee	70%		Steinfeld, Weaver
SAG Award winner	60%		Melissa Leo
New York Film Critics Circle Best Supp. Actress	30%		Melissa Leo
Online Film Critics Society Best Supp. Actress	30%		Hailee Steinfeld
Boston Society of Film Critics Best Supp. Actress	20%		none *
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Best Supp. Actress	20%		Jacki Weaver
Chicago Film Critics Association Best Supp. Actress	10%		Hailee Steinfeld
National Board of Review Best Supp. Actress	10%		Jacki Weaver
National Society of Film Critics Best Supp. Actress	10%		none *
Toronto Film Critics Association Best Supp. Actress	0%		Hailee Steinfeld

* Winner of award was not nominated for the Oscar.

Screenplay (adapted and original)

Aaron Sorkin's screenplay for The Social Network so dominated the awards circuit this year that it is hard to make any prediction other than that Sorkin will win in the adapted screenplay category. Since many organizations only hand out one screenplay award rather than two, as the Oscars do -- and because The Social Network collected all those awards -- predicting the original screenplay category becomes a little tougher. David Seidler's script for The King's Speech and Inception writer-director Christopher Nolan wound up splitting most of the original screenplay honors this year, but since Seidler's victories came in several of the better predictive categories (below), look for him to triumph, especially with all the support behind his film. That said, there's always the chance that Academy voters will want to reward Nolan for one of the year's more successful and original films, and this is the one non-technical category where they can do so. (Plus, the WGA victory certainly doesn't hurt Nolan's chances.)

Favorite: The Social Network (adapted); The King's Speech (original)
Possible: Inception (original)
Dark horse: The Kids Are All Right (original)

Most/Least Accurate Predictors for Best Screenplay Oscars

Predictor	% Correct, Past 10 Yrs		This Year's Pick(s)
First-time winner	95%		Adapted: Social Network, Winter's Bone Original: Any
WGA Award winner	75%		Adapted: Social Network Original: Inception
Golden Globe Best Screenplay	70%		Adapted: Social Network Original: n/a
SE Film Critics Assoc. Best Screenplay	65%		Adapted: Social Network Original: King's Speech
BFCA (Critics Choice Award)	60%		Adapted: Social Network Original: King's Speech
BAFTA Best Screenplay	60%		Adapted: Social Network Original: King's Speech
New York Film Critics Circle Best Screenplay	30%		Adapted: n/a Original: The Kids Are All Right
Nat. Society of Film Critics Best Screenplay	30%		Adapted:Social Network Original: n/a
Toronto Film Critics Assoc. Best Screenplay	30%		Adapted:Social Network Original: n/a
National Board of Review Best Screenplay	29%		Adapted:Social Network Original: n/a
L.A. Film Critics Assoc. Best Screenplay	10%		Adapted:Social Network Original: n/a

Coming soon

Next week, we'll tabulate the predictions of numerous Oscar experts in each of the 24 categories, and take a look back at some of the most- and least-deserving best picture winners of the past few decades. In the meantime, you can give us your own Oscar predictions in our 2011 Academy Awards Poll.