Final 2017 Oscar Predictions from Experts and Users

  • Publish Date: February 23, 2017
  • Comments: ↓ 2 user comments

Updated Sunday 2/26

Say "La La Land" nine times fast

Image

If you think that Damien Chazelle's musical La La Land is going to dominate Sunday's Oscar ceremony, you're not alone. Our panel of industry experts is predicting nine wins for the film, while Metacritic users forecast 12 trophies.

So if you prefer your awards ceremonies to be slightly more exciting, you'll need to hope for some upsets when the 89th Annual Academy Awards ceremony arrives Sunday night at 8:30pm ET (5:30pm PT) on ABC, in a broadcast hosted (for the first time) by Jimmy Kimmel.

Below, we have aggregated predictions from 80 entertainment writers, critics, and awards experts, and compared them to the votes cast by over 4,500 Metacritic visitors who voted in our 8th annual Oscar poll. Also listed are the latest betting odds in each category as published at Ladbrokes (as of Wednesday, February 22).

Best picture and director

It looks like a sweep of the major categories for La La Land, with Moonlight posing the only real challenge.

Best Picture

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
La La Land 1:7 La La Land 91% La La Land 65%
Moonlight 6:1 Moonlight 6% Moonlight 20%
Hidden Figures 20:1 Hidden Figures 3% Manchester by the Sea 5%

Best Director

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Damien Chazelle
La La Land
1:16 Damien Chazelle
La La Land
95% Damien Chazelle
La La Land
71%
Barry Jenkins
Moonlight
9:1 Barry Jenkins
Moonlight
5% Barry Jenkins
Moonlight
14%

Acting

Only one of the four acting races appears to be competitive: lead actor, where a slight majority of experts are predicting that the controversy surrounding one-time favorite Casey Affleck will leave an opening for Denzel Washington to collect his third career Oscar statuette.

Lead Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Emma Stone
La La Land
1:6 Emma Stone
La La Land
92% Emma Stone
La La Land
63%
Natalie Portman
Jackie
5:1 Isabelle Huppert
Elle
5% Natalie Portman
Jackie
19%
Isabelle Huppert
Elle
10:1 Natalie Portman
Jackie
3% Isabelle Huppert
Elle
13%

Lead Actor

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Casey Affleck
Manchester by the Sea
4:6 Denzel Washington
Fences
55% Casey Affleck
Manchester by the Sea
63%
Denzel Washington
Fences
6:5 Casey Affleck
Manchester by the Sea
44% Denzel Washington
Fences
17%
Ryan Gosling
La La Land
14:1 Ryan Gosling
La La Land
1% Ryan Gosling
La La Land
13%

Supporting Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Viola Davis
Fences
1:25 Viola Davis
Fences
98% Viola Davis
Fences
64%
Michelle Williams
Manchester by the Sea
12:1 Naomie Harris
Moonlight
1% Naomie Harris
Moonlight
14%
Naomie Harris
Moonlight
20:1 Michelle Williams
Manchester by the Sea
1% Michelle Williams
Manchester by the Sea
12%

Supporting Actor

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Mahershala Ali
Moonlight
1:6 Mahershala Ali
Moonlight
94% Mahershala Ali
Moonlight
70%
Dev Patel
Lion
6:1 Dev Patel
Lion
5% Jeff Bridges
Hell or High Water
10%
Jeff Bridges
Hell or High Water
14:1 Jeff Bridges
Hell or High Water
1% Dev Patel
Lion
8%

Writing

The original screenplay race was once considered a lock for Manchester by the Sea—which remains a strong favorite—though some experts (and our users) think that La La Land's domination elsewhere could carry over into this category as well. Thanks to the Academy's controversial decision to treat Moonlight as an adapted screenplay, that category appears to be a lock for Barry Jenkins's film (which faced stiffer competition in the original category with other awards bodies).

Original Screenplay

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Kenneth Lonergan
Manchester by the Sea
8:13 Kenneth Lonergan
Manchester by the Sea
76% Damien Chazelle
La La Land
43%
Damien Chazelle
La La Land
11:8 Damien Chazelle
La La Land
23% Kenneth Lonergan
Manchester by the Sea
41%

Adapted Screenplay

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney
Moonlight
1:5 Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney
Moonlight
92% Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney
Moonlight
63%
Eric Heisserer
Arrival
7:1 Eric Heisserer
Arrival
5% Eric Heisserer
Arrival
19%

Other films and shorts

The animated and documentary feature contests have clear favorites, though the foreign-language category is a closer race, with the majority of experts thinking that recent world events will allow the Iranian drama The Salesman (one of several Oscar nominees impacted by Donald Trump's recent travel ban) to edge out Toni Erdmann, one of last year's best-reviewed films.

The short films are always a bit of a crap shoot, since, unlike the experts making the predictions, Oscar voters are actually required to watch the shorts. But this year the animated short category has a clear favorite: the Pixar entry Piper. (Then again, Pixar is nominated in that category almost every year, but hasn't won since 2001.)

Animated Feature

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Zootopia 1:4 Zootopia 93% Zootopia 63%
Kubo and the Two Strings 5:2 Moana 6% Kubo and the Two Strings 21%
Moana 20:1 Kubo and the Two Strings 1% Moana 10%

Documentary Feature

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
O.J.: Made in America 1:5 O.J.: Made in America 90% O.J.: Made in America 55%
13th 3:1 13th 7% I Am Not Your Negro 25%
I Am Not Your Negro 16:1 I Am Not Your Negro 1% 13th 13%

Foreign Language Film

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Toni Erdmann 8:11 The Salesman 73% Toni Erdmann 47%
The Salesman 6:5 Toni Erdmann 20% The Salesman 30%
A Man Called Ove 8:1 A Man Called Ove 7% Land of Mine 11%

Animated Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Piper 1:5 Piper 84% Piper 39%
Blind Vaysha 4:1 Blind Vaysha 5% Borrowed Time 20%
Pearl 12:1 Borrowed Time 5% Pearl 19%

Documentary Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Extremis 4:6 The White Helmets 42% The White Helmets 28%
The White Helmets 5:2 Joe's Violin 34% Joe's Violin 20%
Joe's Violin 7:2 Extremis 19% Extremis 19%

Live Action Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Ennemis intérieurs 5:6 Ennemis intérieurs 56% Sing (Mindenki) 34%
Timecode 15:8 Sing (Mindenki) 16% Silent Nights 25%
Sing (Mindenki) 4:1 La Femme et le TGV 10% Timecode 18%

Music

When a musical is nominated for 14 total Oscars, it's a fairly safe bet that it will be a major contender in the two music categories. In fact, La La Land appears to be the only contender, unless the film's two nominated songs somehow split the vote and allow Lin-Manuel Miranda's Moana tune to sneak in for the win.

Original Score

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Justin Hurwitz
La La Land
1:10 Justin Hurwitz
La La Land
100% Justin Hurwitz
La La Land
88%
Nicholas Britell
Moonlight
8:1     Nicholas Britell
Moonlight
6%
Mica Levi
Jackie
9:1     Mica Levi
Jackie
2%

Original Song

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
"City of Stars"
La La Land
1:5 "City of Stars"
La La Land
88% "City of Stars"
La La Land
72%
"How Far I'll Go"
Moana
6:1 "How Far I'll Go"
Moana
9% "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"
La La Land
16%
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"
La La Land
7:1 "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"
La La Land
1% "How Far I'll Go"
Moana
7%

Technical categories

All of the technical categories appear to have overwhelming favorites this year, with the sole exception of costume design, where oddsmakers (and our users) favor La La Land over the experts' pick, Jackie.

Cinematography

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Linus Sandgren
La La Land
1:7 Linus Sandgren
La La Land
83% Linus Sandgren
La La Land
59%
Bradford Young
Arrival
8:1 Bradford Young
Arrival
10% Bradford Young
Arrival
19%
Greig Fraser
Lion
10:1 Greig Fraser
Lion
4% James Laxton
Moonlight
13%

Costume Design

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
La La Land 8:13 Jackie 55% La La Land 44%
Jackie 11:8 La La Land 35% Jackie 29%
Florence Foster Jenkins 12:1 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 6% Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 19%

Film Editing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
La La Land 1:6 La La Land 91% La La Land 54%
Hacksaw Ridge 9:2 Arrival 6% Arrival 16%
Moonlight 14:1 Hacksaw Ridge 3% Hacksaw Ridge 14%

Makeup & Hairstyling

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Star Trek Beyond 1:3 Star Trek Beyond 65% Star Trek Beyond 53%
Suicide Squad 7:2 Suicide Squad 27% Suicide Squad 31%

Production Design

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
La La Land 1:6 La La Land 81% La La Land 66%
Arrival 7:1 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 10% Arrival 14%
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 7:1 Arrival 7% Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 11%

Sound Editing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Hacksaw Ridge 1:2 Hacksaw Ridge 74% La La Land 50%
La La Land 5:2 La La Land 18% Hacksaw Ridge 22%
Arrival 4:1 Arrival 8% Arrival 22%

Sound Mixing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
La La Land 1:6 La La Land 79% La La Land 53%
Hacksaw Ridge 6:1 Hacksaw Ridge 14% Arrival 17%
Arrival 6:1 Arrival 5% Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 15%

Visual Effects

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
The Jungle Book 1:6 The Jungle Book 89% The Jungle Book 41%
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 5:1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 5% Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 24%
Doctor Strange 10:1 Kubo and the Two Strings and Doctor Strange 3% Doctor Strange 23%

List of experts

The expert predictions compiled above come from the following sources (note that not every expert made picks in every category):


* As reported at Gold Derby (reflecting any updates through February 26, 2017).
** As reported in Movie City News' Gurus O' Gold column as of February 23, 2017.

Check our site Monday morning for the final results as we reveal which users and experts had the most accurate predictions. We'll also collect reviews of the broadcast from TV critics.


Comments (2)

  • bananapants34  

    I wish Hell or high water would win something, it was fantastic. I enjoyed it much more than la la land.

  • Comasi  

    I personally loved La La Land but I hope Moonlight wins Best Picture/Director.

New in Metacritic Reports

What Our Users Are Talking About

  1. /feature/legion-fx-season-2-finale-review Image
    Episode Review: Legion Season 2 Finale
    June 12, 2018 - 3 comments
    1. bilsantu : I think they should have focused more on the plot and its pacing then cinematography. Superb cinematography alone... Read »
    2. WillieB : Disagree that the Finale invalid the season. How so? And there wasn't much logic to begin with throughout. Just my... Read »
    3. ScienceAdvisor : They just invalidated this season, and the paradox used to achieve this is only less annoying than the big bad of... Read »
  2. /feature/metacritic-must-see-movies Image
    New on Metacritic: Must-See Movies
    June 11, 2018 - 2 comments
    1. eli_fjr : Woooot! Read »
    2. ahmedaiman9999 : The thing that bothers me is your score for Zootopia. Really, it deserves only 78!!!! Read »
  3. /feature/tv-renewal-scorecard-2018-2019-season Image
    2018-19 TV Season Scorecard
    June 1, 2018 - 4 comments
    1. Casper : Yet this list also includes Inside Amy Schumer. Yes, the agreement is for a fifth season, but who knows if that will... Read »
    2. Casper : (Apologies for any typos in the other post) I guess the start of the article confirmed that it would only focus on... Read »
    3. Casper : By "selected shows from Other Networks" they mean mostly scripted fare aimed at adults. Another Period fits that... Read »
    4. Benny2 : Worst Witch and Home: Adventures with Tip and Oh need to get added under Netflix Read »
  4. /feature/now-streaming-on-netflix Image
    What to Watch Now on Netflix
    June 20, 2018 - 26 comments
    1. eli_fjr : Finally catching up! Read »