2014 Emmy Award Predictions from Experts & Users

  • Publish Date: August 22, 2014
  • Comments: ↓ 0 user comments

Updated 8/25 at 8:37am.

Projected winners for the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards

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Will Breaking Bad break through (again) in its final year of eligibility, or will True Detective spoil its last shot at Emmy gold? Will Netflix's bold decision to place Orange Is the New Black in the comedy categories upstage the more established Veep and Modern Family? Does FX's newcomer Fargo have the edge over American Horror Story in the miniseries categories? Will Game of Thrones be able to turn its year-leading 19 Emmy nominations into a major award victory?

These are just some of the questions that will be answered when Seth Meyers hosts the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards, which will be broadcast live coast-to-coast on NBC on Monday night (yes, we said Monday) at 8p ET / 5p PT.

To give you a heads up about what to expect—or simply to help you complete your office Emmy pool—we have once again collected the predictions of 40 professional TV "experts" (including awards show followers, television writers, and critics) in two dozen major award categories. Over the past month, we also asked our users to submit their own Emmy predictions, and results from their 3,200+ votes are also included below. Last year, by the way, 2 in every 3 experts failed to achieve even 50% accuracy (the best few were only 55% correct), while the user consensus picked the right winner just 32% of the time. In other words, expect a few "surprises" on Monday.

Experts included in our survey this year are: Kate Aurthur (BuzzFeed), Michael Ausiello (TVLine), Robert Bianco (USA Today*), Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Mike Cidoni (Associated Press*), Kristin Dos Santos (E!), Lynn Elber (Associated Press*), Joyce Eng (TV Guide*), Kevin Fallon (The Daily Beast), Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter*), Daniel Fienberg (HitFix), Matthew Gilbert (Boston Globe), Ed Gonzalez (Slant), Pete Hammond (Deadline), IGN staff (IGN), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post*), Craig Kennedy (Awards Daily), Peter Knegt (Indiewire), Oliver Lyttelton (The Playlist), Devin Mainville (Chicago Now), Melanie McFarland (IMDb), Tim Molloy (TheWrap), Frazier Moore (Associated Press), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Joanne Ostrow (Denver Post), Steve Pond (TheWrap*), Lynette Rice (People*), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Matt Roush (TV Guide*), Alan Sepinwall (HitFix), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), David Sims (The Wire), Michelle Stark (Tampa Bay Times), Ben Travers (Indiewire), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood*), Ken Tucker (NPR*), Kristi Turnquist (The Oregonian), Todd VanDerWerff (Vox), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times*), Emily Yahr (Washington Post)

* Predictions made at goldderby.com as of August 22, 2014.
Note that most experts did not make predictions in every category. Click on any link above to view individual predictions.

Comedy nominees

The comedy races are tougher calls than their drama counterparts this year, with only Veep's Julia Louis-Dreyfus (going for her third straight win) close to a lock in the major categories. Allison Janney also seems to be a strong favorite to win her second Emmy of the year (in addition to last week's win for her guest role on Masters of Sex), though that is one of many comedy categories where our users disagreed with the expert picks.

Outstanding Comedy Series Expert Picks User Picks
The Big Bang Theory (CBS) 0%   10% bar
Louie (FX) 3% bar 15% bar
Modern Family (ABC) 18% bar 15% bar
Orange Is the New Black (Netflix) 63% bar 45% bar
Silicon Valley (HBO) 0%   6% bar
Veep (HBO) 18% bar 9% bar
 
Comedy Lead Actor Expert Picks User Picks
Louis C.K. Louie
15% bar 44% bar
Don Cheadle House of Lies
3% bar 4% bar
Ricky Gervais Derek
23% bar 6% bar
Matt LeBlanc Episodes
0%   4% bar
William H. Macy Shameless
10% bar 8% bar
Jim Parsons The Big Bang Theory
50% bar 33% bar
 
Comedy Lead Actress Expert Picks User Picks
Lena Dunham Girls
0%   4% bar
Edie Falco Nurse Jackie
0%   3% bar
Julia Louis-Dreyfus Veep
90% bar 36% bar
Melissa McCarthy Mike & Molly
0%   3% bar
Amy Poehler Parks and Recreation
3% bar 18% bar
Taylor Schilling Orange Is the New Black
8% bar 36% bar
 
Comedy Supporting Actor Expert Picks User Picks
Fred Armisen Portlandia
0%   9% bar
Andre Braugher Brooklyn Nine-Nine
61% bar 21% bar
Ty Burrell Modern Family
0%   27% bar
Adam Driver Girls
0%   11% bar
Jesse Tyler Ferguson Modern Family
3% bar 13% bar
Tony Hale Veep
37% bar 19% bar
 
Comedy Supporting Actress Expert Picks User Picks
Mayim Bialik The Big Bang Theory
3% bar 14% bar
Julie Bowen Modern Family
0%   17% bar
Anna Chlumsky Veep
0%   8% bar
Allison Janney Mom
76% bar 11% bar
Kate McKinnon Saturday Night Live
0%   6% bar
Kate Mulgrew Orange Is the New Black
21% bar 44% bar
 
Comedy Writing Expert Picks User Picks
David Crane & Jeffrey Klarik Episodes
0%   3% bar
Louis C.K. Louie
63% bar 33% bar
Liz Friedman & Jenji Kohan Orange Is the New Black
29% bar 41% bar
Alec Berg Silicon Valley
0%   13% bar
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche Veep
8% bar 11% bar
 
Comedy Directing Expert Picks User Picks
Iain B. MacDonald Episodes
0%   3% bar
Paris Barclay Glee
0%   3% bar
Louis C.K. Louie
4% bar 21% bar
Gail Mancuso Modern Family
13% bar 17% bar
Jodie Foster Orange Is the New Black
83% bar 47% bar
Mike Judge Silicon Valley
0%   9% bar

Drama nominees

Don't worry, Breaking Bad fans. Despite the unexpected arrival of True Detective in the drama series category, Bad's final batch of episodes are widely expected to bring the series its second best drama Emmy. But, if experts are right, it looks like viewers won't be denied a chance at another Matthew McConaughey acceptance speech, as the True Detective star is a strong favorite over Bad's three-time winner Bryan Cranston (though our users think Cranston will win one last time instead). The best actress race, however, is the toughest call in drama, and many experts expressed little confidence in their picks here.

Outstanding Drama Series Expert Picks User Picks
Breaking Bad (AMC) 93% bar 63% bar
Downton Abbey (PBS) 0%   1% bar
Game of Thrones (HBO) 3% bar 15% bar
House of Cards (Netflix) 0%   4% bar
Mad Men (AMC) 0%   1% bar
True Detective (HBO) 5% bar 16% bar
 
Drama Lead Actor Expert Picks User Picks
Bryan Cranston Breaking Bad
15% bar 51% bar
Jeff Daniels The Newsroom
0%   1% bar
Jon Hamm Mad Men
3% bar 2% bar
Woody Harrelson True Detective
0%   2% bar
Matthew McConaughey True Detective
83% bar 37% bar
Kevin Spacey House of Cards
0%   6% bar
 
Drama Lead Actress Expert Picks User Picks
Lizzy Caplan Masters of Sex
8% bar 15% bar
Claire Danes Homeland
3% bar 16% bar
Michelle Dockery Downton Abbey
0%   4% bar
Julianna Margulies The Good Wife
50% bar 15% bar
Kerry Washington Scandal
8% bar 13% bar
Robin Wright House of Cards
33% bar 38% bar
 
Drama Supporting Actor Expert Picks User Picks
Jim Carter Downton Abbey
0%   1% bar
Josh Charles The Good Wife
16% bar 6% bar
Peter Dinklage Game of Thrones
13% bar 43% bar
Mandy Patinkin Homeland
0%   3% bar
Aaron Paul Breaking Bad
61% bar 43% bar
Jon Voight Ray Donovan
11% bar 3% bar
 
Drama Supporting Actress Expert Picks User Picks
Christine Baranski The Good Wife
3% bar 7% bar
Joanne Froggatt Downton Abbey
0%   2% bar
Anna Gunn Breaking Bad
97% bar 46% bar
Christina Hendricks Mad Men
0%   7% bar
Lena Headey Game of Thrones
0%   29% bar
Maggie Smith Downton Abbey
0%   8% bar
 
Drama Writing Expert Picks User Picks
Vince Gilligan Breaking Bad ("Felina")
21% bar 19% bar
Moira Walley-Beckett Breaking Bad ("Ozymandias")
75% bar 52% bar
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss Game of Thrones
0%   11% bar
Beau Willimon House of Cards
0%   5% bar
Nic Pizzolatto True Detective
4% bar 14% bar
 
Drama Directing Expert Picks User Picks
Tim Van Patten Boardwalk Empire
0%   2% bar
Vince Gilligan Breaking Bad
17% bar 41% bar
David Evans Downton Abbey
0%   2% bar
Neil Marshall Game of Thrones
4% bar 22% bar
Carl Franklin House of Cards
0%   5% bar
Cary Joji Fukunaga True Detective
79% bar 28% bar

Movie and miniseries nominees

Splitting movies and miniseries into two different categories this year seems to have created locks in each, with HBO's The Normal Heart and FX's Fargo among the year's surest of sure things. Heart's co-star Matt Bomer and The Trip to Bountiful's Cicely Tyson (who already won a Tony for the same role) also appear to be locks, though the other categories are slightly tougher to call.

Outstanding Miniseries Expert Picks User Picks
American Horror Story: Coven (FX) 0%   16% bar
Bonnie & Clyde (A&E) 0%   1% bar
Fargo (FX) 100% bar 75% bar
Luther (BBC America) 0%   5% bar
Treme (HBO) 0%   2% bar
The White Queen (Starz) 0%   1% bar
 
Outstanding Made for TV Movie Expert Picks User Picks
Killing Kennedy (Nat Geo) 0%   8% bar
Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight (HBO) 0%   8% bar
The Normal Heart (HBO) 100% bar 53% bar
Sherlock, "His Last Vow" (PBS) 0%   30% bar
The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime) 0%   2% bar
 
Miniseries/Movie Lead Actor Expert Picks User Picks
Benedict Cumberbatch Sherlock
0%   26% bar
Chiwetel Ejiofor Dancing on the Edge
0%   2% bar
Idris Elba Luther
0%   6% bar
Martin Freeman Fargo
0%   16% bar
Mark Ruffalo The Normal Heart
34% bar 19% bar
Billy Bob Thornton Fargo
66% bar 31% bar
 
Miniseries/Movie Lead Actress Expert Picks User Picks
Helena Bonham Carter Burton & Taylor
0%   17% bar
Minnie Driver Return to Zero
0%   5% bar
Jessica Lange American Horror Story
9% bar 44% bar
Sarah Paulson American Horror Story
3% bar 12% bar
Cicely Tyson The Trip to Bountiful
88% bar 11% bar
Kristen Wiig The Spoils of Babylon
0%   11% bar
 
Miniseries/Movie Supporting Actor Expert Picks User Picks
Matt Bomer The Normal Heart
97% bar 29% bar
Martin Freeman Sherlock
0%   31% bar
Colin Hanks Fargo
3% bar 19% bar
Joe Mantello The Normal Heart
0%   4% bar
Alfred Molina The Normal Heart
0%   6% bar
Jim Parsons The Normal Heart
0%   11% bar
 
Miniseries/Movie Supporting Actress Expert Picks User Picks
Angela Bassett American Horror Story
0%   7% bar
Kathy Bates American Horror Story
0%   20% bar
Ellen Burstyn Flowers in the Attic
0%   4% bar
Frances Conroy American Horror Story
0%   6% bar
Julia Roberts The Normal Heart
37% bar 24% bar
Allison Tolman Fargo
63% bar 39% bar
 
Miniseries/Movie Writing Expert Picks User Picks
Ryan Murphy & Brad Falchuk American Horror Story
0%   10% bar
Noah Hawley Fargo
29% bar 37% bar
Neil Cross Luther
0%   4% bar
Larry Kramer The Normal Heart
71% bar 26% bar
Steven Moffat Sherlock
0%   21% bar
David Simon & Eric Overmyer Treme
0%   3% bar
 
Miniseries/Movie Directing Expert Picks User Picks
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon American Horror Story
0%   11% bar
Colin Bucksey Fargo ("Buridan's Ass")
0%   15% bar
Adam Bernstein Fargo ("The Crocodile's Dilemma")
10% bar 24% bar
Stephen Frears Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight
0%   4% bar
Ryan Murphy The Normal Heart
86% bar 27% bar
Nick Hurran Sherlock
5% bar 19% bar

Other shows

Experts and users agree that The Voice should repeat in the reality competition category (though The Amazing Race, a nine-time winner, shouldn't be ruled out), while The Colbert Report is also a favorite to repeat in variety.

Outstanding Reality Competition Series Expert Picks User Picks
The Amazing Race (CBS) 16% bar 31% bar
Dancing With the Stars (ABC) 0%   7% bar
Project Runway (Lifetime) 0%   7% bar
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox) 4% bar 7% bar
Top Chef (Bravo) 0%   15% bar
The Voice (NBC) 80% bar 34% bar
 
Outstanding Variety Series Expert Picks User Picks
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) 68% bar 29% bar
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart (Comedy Central) 0%   19% bar
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC) 0%   9% bar
Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO) 0%   3% bar
Saturday Night Live (NBC) 0%   10% bar
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) 32% bar 29% bar

After the ceremony

Check our site again Tuesday morning after the Emmy ceremony for reviews of the telecast from a selection of professional TV critics. We'll also reveal which experts and users were the most accurate in their predictions this year.

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