Final 2016 Oscar Predictions from Experts and Users

  • Publish Date: February 25, 2016
  • Comments: ↓ 9 user comments

Updated Sunday 2/28 at 1:20p.

Oscars so predictable

Image

It should be just a bit easier to complete your Oscar pool this year. Almost all of the races heading into this weekend's Oscar ceremony appear to be settled, though you can usually count on one upset or two. If not, we could be in for a boring night on Sunday when Chris Rock hosts the 88th Annual Academy Awards ceremony, airing at 8:30pm ET (5:30pm PT) on ABC.

Below, we've aggregated predictions from nearly 70 entertainment writers, critics, and awards experts, and compared them to the votes cast by over 6,600 Metacritic visitors who voted in our 7th annual Oscar poll. Also listed are the latest betting odds in each category as published at Bet365 (as of Monday, February 22).

Best picture and director

The best picture race is actually one of the most competitive categories this year, despite the fact that it has a fairly clear favorite, with The Revenant the consensus pick of experts and Metacritic users in addition to oddsmakers. And that film's director, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, looks likely to score back-to-back wins in the director category, after winning for Birdman last year. (Iñárritu also produced both films, and co-wrote Birdman, which means he could wind up with a total of five Academy Award trophies in a two-year span).

Best Picture

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
The Revenant 8:15 The Revenant 66% The Revenant 37%
Spotlight 9:4 Spotlight 21% Spotlight 31%
The Big Short 5:1 The Big Short 13% Mad Max: Fury Road 16%

Best Director

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
The Revenant
1:10 Alejandro G. Iñárritu
The Revenant
88% Alejandro G. Iñárritu
The Revenant
49%
George Miller
Mad Max: Fury Road
13:2 George Miller
Mad Max: Fury Road
12% George Miller
Mad Max: Fury Road
41%

Acting

For the third straight year, all four acting categories appear to have certain winners well in advance of the Oscar ceremony. Not one expert dared to pick against Brie Larson and only one did so against Leonardo DiCaprio in the lead categories—both will be first-time winners if they follow through on expectations—and only a handful went against the consensus in the supporting categories.

Lead Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Brie Larson
Room
1:25 Brie Larson
Room
100% Brie Larson
Room
67%
Saoirse Ronan
Brooklyn
12:1     Cate Blanchett
Carol
16%
Cate Blanchett
Carol
33:1     Jennifer Lawrence
Joy
8%
Jennifer Lawrence
Joy
33:1     Saoirse Ronan
Brooklyn
6%

Lead Actor

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Leonardo DiCaprio
The Revenant
1:100 Leonardo DiCaprio
The Revenant
99% Leonardo DiCaprio
The Revenant
87%
Eddie Redmayne
The Danish Girl
20:1 Bryan Cranston
Trumbo
1% Michael Fassbender
Steve Jobs
4%
Michael Fassbender
Steve Jobs
25:1     Matt Damon
The Martian
3%

Supporting Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Alicia Vikander
The Danish Girl
4:9 Alicia Vikander
The Danish Girl
94% Alicia Vikander
The Danish Girl
35%
Kate Winslet
Steve Jobs
7:2 Kate Winslet
Steve Jobs
6% Kate Winslet
Steve Jobs
20%
Rooney Mara
Carol
4:1     Jennifer Jason Leigh
The Hateful Eight
19%

Supporting Actor

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Sylvester Stallone
Creed
2:7 Sylvester Stallone
Creed
90% Sylvester Stallone
Creed
52%
Mark Rylance
Bridge of Spies
11:4 Mark Rylance
Bridge of Spies
6% Tom Hardy
The Revenant
23%
Tom Hardy
The Revenant
20:1 Mark Ruffalo
Spotlight
3% Mark Ruffalo
Spotlight
9%

Writing

Again, there is little suspense here, with both screenplay categories featuring overwhelming favorites. And the two pairs of writers favored to win will become first-time Oscar winners if they do indeed take home the statuettes.

Original Screenplay

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Singer/McCarthy
Spotlight
1:14 Singer/McCarthy
Spotlight
97% Singer/McCarthy
Spotlight
52%
Docter/LeFauve/Cooley
Inside Out
13:2 Docter/LeFauve/Cooley
Inside Out
1% Alex Garland
Ex Machina
19%
Charman/E. Coen/J. Coen
Bridge of Spies
22:1 Herman/Berloff
Straight Outta Compton
1% Docter/LeFauve/Cooley
Inside Out
15%

Adapted Screenplay

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Randolph/McKay
The Big Short
1:14 Randolph/McKay
The Big Short
97% Randolph/McKay
The Big Short
44%
Emma Donoghue
Room
13:2 Nick Hornby
Brooklyn
1% Drew Goddard
The Martian
26%
Nick Hornby
Brooklyn
20:1 Drew Goddard
The Martian
1% Emma Donoghue
Room
17%

Other films and shorts

The animated, documentary, and foreign-language categories appear to have little suspense this year. That is in line with recent trends toward clear favorites in those three categories, though this year's races seem even more settled than usual. The short film categories, meanwhile, continue to be the races that will make or break your Oscar pool. (Even when there is a strong consensus in the short film categories, it is often wrong, though last year the experts got all three races correct.)

Animated Feature

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Inside Out 1:100 Inside Out 98% Inside Out 85%
Anomalisa 16:1 Anomalisa 2% Anomalisa 9%
Shaun the Sheep 28:1     Shaun the Sheep 2%

Documentary Feature

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Amy 1:5 Amy 95% Amy 50%
Cartel Land 9:2 The Look of Silence 3% The Look of Silence 24%
The Look of Silence 11:1 Cartel Land 2% Cartel Land 12%

Foreign Language Film

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Son of Saul 1:14 Son of Saul 94% Son of Saul 74%
Mustang 13:2 Mustang 6% A War 10%
Embrace of the Serpent 28:1     Mustang 7%

Animated Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Sanjay's Super Team 8:11 Sanjay's Super Team 46% World of Tomorrow 36%
World of Tomorrow 11:8 World of Tomorrow 32% Sanjay's Super Team 22%
Bear Story 8:1 Bear Story 22% Bear Story 19%

Documentary Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Body Team 12 8:11 Body Team 12 47% Last Day of Freedom 34%
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah 7:4 Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah 31% Body Team 12 25%
A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness 10:1 A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness 15% A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness 21%

Live Action Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Ave Maria 8:15 Shok 37% Ave Maria 27%
Shok 3:1 Ave Maria 36% Day One 26%
Stutterer 7:1 Stutterer 17% Everything Will Be Okay 20%

Music

Legendary film composer Ennio Morricone has never won an Oscar. That should change on Sunday, as he appears to be a sure thing to convert his sixth nomination into a trophy. The original song category also appears to have little suspense, with Diane Warren and Lady Gaga's composition for the college sexual assault documentary The Hunting Ground looking like the winner.

Original Score

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Ennio Morricone
The Hateful Eight
1:6 Ennio Morricone
The Hateful Eight
95% Ennio Morricone
The Hateful Eight
59%
John Williams
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
7:2 Carter Burwell
Carol
3% John Williams
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
23%
Thomas Newman
Bridge of Spies
22:1 Jóhann Jóhannsson
Sicario
2% Jóhann Jóhannsson
Sicario
9%

Original Song

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
"Til It Happens To You"
The Hunting Ground
4:11 "Til It Happens To You"
The Hunting Ground
90% "Writing's on the Wall"
Spectre
49%
"Writing's on the Wall"
Spectre
9:2 "Writing's on the Wall"
Spectre
6% "Til It Happens To You"
The Hunting Ground
23%
"Earned It"
Fifty Shades of Grey
13:2 "Simple Song 3"
Youth
3% "Earned It"
Fifty Shades of Grey
13%

Technical categories

All three groups (oddsmakers, experts, users) are predicting a near-sweep of the technical categories by Mad Max: Fury Road (which could make that film the biggest winner on the night), though visual effects and costume design appear to be close races. One notable exception: Emmanuel Lubezki looks like a lock to take home an unprecedented third consecutive cinematography Oscar for his work on The Revenant.

Cinematography

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Emmanuel Lubezki
The Revenant
1:20 Emmanuel Lubezki
The Revenant
100% Emmanuel Lubezki
The Revenant
65%
John Seale
Mad Max: Fury Road
15:2     John Seale
Mad Max: Fury Road
23%
Ed Lachman
Carol
33:1     Roger Deakins
Sicario
5%
Roger Deakins
Sicario
33:1     Robert Richardson
The Hateful Eight
4%

Costume Design

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Mad Max: Fury Road 10:11 Mad Max: Fury Road 42% Mad Max: Fury Road 58%
Cinderella 5:2 Cinderella 34% The Revenant 12%
Carol 10:3 Carol 18% Carol 11%

Film Editing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Margaret Sixel
Mad Max: Fury Road
2:9 Margaret Sixel
Mad Max: Fury Road
82% Margaret Sixel
Mad Max: Fury Road
54%
Hank Corwin
The Big Short
7:2 Hank Corwin
The Big Short
15% Stephen Mirrione
The Revenant
17%
Tom McArdle
Spotlight
16:1 Stephen Mirrione
The Revenant
2% Brandon/Markey
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
16%
Stephen Mirrione
The Revenant
16:1 Brandon/Markey
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2% Hank Corwin
The Big Short
9%

Makeup & Hairstyling

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Mad Max: Fury Road 1:6 Mad Max: Fury Road 92% Mad Max: Fury Road 73%
The Revenant 7:2 The Revenant 8% The Revenant 25%

Production Design

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Mad Max: Fury Road 1:12 Mad Max: Fury Road 94% Mad Max: Fury Road 62%
The Danish Girl 14:1 The Revenant 3% The Revenant 19%
The Revenant 16:1 The Martian 3% The Martian 12%

Sound Editing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Mad Max: Fury Road 4:9 Mad Max: Fury Road 67% Mad Max: Fury Road 43%
The Revenant 5:2 The Revenant 30% Star Wars: The Force Awakens 32%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 8:1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3% The Revenant 13%

Sound Mixing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Mad Max: Fury Road 8:13 Mad Max: Fury Road 53% Mad Max: Fury Road 46%
The Revenant 13:8 The Revenant 42% Star Wars: The Force Awakens 33%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 10:1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 5% The Revenant 14%

Visual Effects

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 4:9 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 48% Mad Max: Fury Road 43%
Mad Max: Fury Road 13:8 Mad Max: Fury Road 34% Star Wars: The Force Awakens 41%
The Revenant 16:1 The Revenant 15% The Revenant 7%

List of experts

The expert predictions compiled above come from the following sources (note that not every expert made picks in every category):


* As reported at Gold Derby (reflecting any updates through February 28, 2016).
** As reported in Movie City News' Gurus O' Gold column as of February 24, 2016

Check our site Monday morning for the final results as we reveal which users and experts had the most accurate predictions. We'll also collect reviews of the broadcast from TV critics.


Comments (9)

  • DanBurrito  

    So glad about Spotlight winning Best Picture, Rylance winning Best Supporting Actor and Inside Out winning Best Animated Feature. And of course - DICAPRIO FINALLY WON AN OSCAR! About time...

  • ConJoJohn  

    Original Screenplay
    Spotlight

    Adapted Screenplay
    The Big Short

    Actress in a Supporting Role
    Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl

    Costume Design
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    -> Potential Pity Win: Carol (*shakes fist*)

    Production Design
    Mad Max: Fury Road

    Makeup and Hairstyling
    Mad Max: Fury Road

    Cinematography

    -> I say: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Revenant, runners-up John Seale for Mad Max and Roger Deakins for Sicario, Ed Lachman for Carol (tie)

    Film Editing
    Mad Max: Fury Road, with strong runner-up The Big Short

    Sound Editing
    Mad Max: Fury Road, runner-up Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    Sound Mixing
    Mad Max: Fury Road

    Visual Effects
    Mad Max: Fury Road, but strong runner-up Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    Animated Short Film
    “Sanjay’s Super Team,” with near-tie in likelihood “World of Tomorrow”
    -> Either way, one very deserving short film will lose
    -> UNLESS THEY TIE?!

    Animated Feature Film
    Inside Out

    Actor in a Supporting Role
    Sylvester Stallone in Creed

    Documentary Short Subject
    “Body Team 12” (close call with “Claude Lanzmann,” though)

    Documentary Feature
    Amy

    Live Action Short Film
    -“Shok”

    Foreign Language Film
    Son of Saul

    Original Song
    “Til It Happens to You” in The Hunting Ground, performed by Lady Gaga

    Original Score
    The Hateful Eight, composed by Ennio Morricone, Thomas Newman (Bridge of Spies) being sad because he never wins

    Directing
    Mad Max: Fury Road, with strong runner-up The Revenant

    Actress in a Leading Role
    Brie Larson in Room

    Actor in a Leading Role
    Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant

    Best Picture
    Mad Max: Fury Road, with strong runner-up The Big Short, and slightly less strong runner-up The Revenant

    Honestly, though, I'm really torn between Mad Max and The Big Short winning. It's all down to Best Editing and Best Director, but mostly Best Editing.

  • ConJoJohn  

    Here are my slightly late predictions:

    http://docdro.id/m6g4uLH

  • FelicityFenwick  

    LOVE this. Thanks for putting it together, Jason!

  • sebastianglz  

    The Revenant doesn't deserves the Best Picture award

  • ConJoJohn  

    @Equality7-2521

    I think that Star Wars has a very good chance of winning Best Sound Editing (deservedly) and Best Visual Effects (undeservedly).

    Also, who decided these people are "experts" anyway? Bah, I say.

  • Equality7-2521  

    Damn, I just sort of "by default" picked Star Wars for sound editing, mixing, VFX, and film editing.

  • Shikamo  

    Stallone deserves this oscar.

  • DanBurrito  

    I seriously think Mark Rylance is going to win Best Supporting Actor. And while I do think Brie Larson is likely to win Leading Actress, let's be fair-Saoirse Ronan has a really good chance too. I used to think "Spotlight" would win Best Picture, but now I'm starting to suspect that it may be The Revenant after all.

What Our Users Are Talking About

  1. /feature/new-movie-trailers-august-10-2018 Image
    Film Friday (8/10): This Week's New Movie Trailers
    August 10, 2018 - 1 comment
    1. minionrushonlin : I think this is an informative post and it is very useful and knowledgeable. I really enjoyed reading this post. big... Read »
  2. /feature/best-of-july-2018 Image
    Best of July 2018: Top Albums, Games, Movies & TV
    July 31, 2018 - 4 comments
    1. Lauren011 : My names is Cathy i want to testify about the great spell caster called Priest Ade my husband and i have been married... Read »
    2. Lauren011 : My names is Cathy i want to testify about the great spell caster called Priest Ade my husband and i have been married... Read »
    3. MICHAELZOTOO : I NEED A SPELL CASTER TO GET MY EX LOVER BACK WHATSAPP +1(424)-261-8520 I read some testimonies about a love... Read »
    4. MICHAELZOTOO : I NEED A SPELL CASTER TO GET MY EX LOVER BACK WHATSAPP +1(424)-261-8520 I read some testimonies about a love... Read »
  3. /feature/new-movie-trailers-july-13-2018 Image
    Film Friday (7/13): This Week's New Movie Trailers
    July 13, 2018 - 1 comment
    1. eli_fjr : Some gems in there Read »
  4. /feature/july-2018-movie-preview Image
    12 Films to See in July
    July 1, 2018 - 1 comment
    1. GinaK : Would love to see "The Third Murder" and "McQueen," but not much hope of seeing them in the 'burbs. However, have... Read »
  5. /feature/25-best-ios-games Image
    Quarterly Report: The 25 Best iPhone/iPad Games
    June 30, 2018 - 11 comments
    1. NobieSampson : Great list! Plan vs zombies is one of my favorite game here, I played it until now and the upgraded one is more... Read »
  6. /feature/tv-premiere-dates Image
    2018 Fall TV Premiere Calendar
    August 14, 2018 - 177 comments
    1. gwmolitor : Is HBO's Real Time with Bill Maher returning Aug., 3? Read »
    2. Clod12 : EL CHAPO Season 3 began on 9th July on Univision, and on 27th July on Netflix. Read »