Results: User Metascore Predictions for Summer Films

  • Publish Date: September 7, 2010
  • Comments: ↓ 7 user comments

How close were you?

Median Guess vs. Actual Score
bar
Very Close
(+/- 0-4 points)
6 films / 21%
bar
Close
(+/- 5-9 points)
12 films / 41%
bar
Not Close
(+/- 10-24 points)
9 films / 31%
bar
So Very Wrong
(+/- 25 points or more)
2 films / 7%

Back in May, we asked our users to predict the Metascores for 30 of the summer's biggest film releases. Now that the summer movie season is officially over, we thought we'd go back and see how you did.

As it turns out, you were too generous. While, based on the median guess for each film, our users predicted just one title to receive a red Metascore (indicating mostly unfavorable reviews from critics), a total of six summer films achieved that dubious distinction, including the one our users picked to receive the lowest score, the Ashton Kutcher comedy Killers. That was far from the summer's worst-reviewed film, however; that honor went to M. Night Shyamalan's The Last Airbender, which was also the score most overestimated by our users -- by a wide margin. Our users also could not foresee the extent of critical hatred that would eventually fall upon Sex and the City 2, Grown Ups, and Jonah Hex.

However, of the five films you predicted to earn positive reviews (i.e., green Metascores) from critics, only one -- Ridley Scott's Robin Hood -- failed to do so. (A sixth film, The Adjustment Bureau, was bumped from summer into next year.) And only The Karate Kid really surprised our users by earning positive reviews, though a few other films (like The Twilight Saga: Eclipse) were also underestimated by users, turning out to be less mediocre than predicted.

As a whole, users overestimated 55% of the scores, while underestimating 45%. On average, median user guesses were 9.6 points away from the actual Metascore for each film. You can see the spreads for each individual movie below, ranked from most accurate to least accurate.

Comparison of User Metascore Predictions vs. Actual Scores for Summer Movies
Movie Median Guess  Actual  Score Difference
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World   68   69   +1
Predators   53   51   -2
Shrek Forever After   55   58   +3
Dinner for Schmucks   60   56   -4
MacGruber   47   43   +4
The Other Guys   60   64   +4
The A-Team   52   47   -5
Get Him to the Greek   60   65   +5
Letters to Juliet   45   50   +5
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time   55   50   -5
Salt   60   65   +5
Despicable Me   66   72   +6
Going the Distance   44   51   +7
Inception   81   74   -7
The Sorcerer's Apprentice   53   46   -7
Toy Story 3   85   92   +7
The Switch   44   52   +8
The Expendables   54   45   -9
Eat Pray Love   60   50   -10
Marmaduke   40   30   -10
The Karate Kid   50   61   +11
Knight and Day   57   46   -11
Robin Hood   65   53   -12
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse   44   58   +14
Grown Ups   47   30   -17
Sex and the City 2   45   27   -18
Killers   39   21   -18
Jonah Hex   58   33   -25
The Last Airbender   58   20   -38
The Adjustment Bureau *   66   tbd   n/a

* Originally given a summer release date, The Adjustment Bureau was delayed until 2011.

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Comments (7)

  • A.C.  

    Good point Joe, any director who can take Paul Giamatti and put him in a bad movie like Shamalyn did shows how awful he is. I write off anything he puts out anyway, especially considering the box office to Air Bender, we'll probably get a crappy sequel from him.

  • Jarek G.  

    Did you see the new clip from Devil on imdb? That movie's gonna suck so hard it'll cause brain damage to anyone who sees it.

  • Yazveru  

    Why use the median of user predictions? Average seems more applicable for a scale variable. Or that secret weighted average of yours =)

  • Joe W  

    Devil's only co-written by him, and no, i dont think it'll be very good

  • conditionals  

    Joe W, it's the metacritic users who thought those Airbender-related thoughts. Plus, I bet Devil turns out to be pretty OK.

  • Benjamin Jones  

    Congrats to Twilight: Eclipse and Karate Kid for exceeding people's already low expectations!

  • Joe W  

    Cmon metacritic, how could you have possibly thought Last Airbender would even be mediocre. Shamylan has a trend, I bet his next movie is a single digit score.

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