How close were you?
(+/- 0-4 points)
|6 films / 21%|
(+/- 5-9 points)
|12 films / 41%|
(+/- 10-24 points)
|9 films / 31%|
|So Very Wrong
(+/- 25 points or more)
|2 films / 7%|
Back in May, we asked our users to predict the Metascores for 30 of the summer's biggest film releases. Now that the summer movie season is officially over, we thought we'd go back and see how you did.
As it turns out, you were too generous. While, based on the median guess for each film, our users predicted just one title to receive a red Metascore (indicating mostly unfavorable reviews from critics), a total of six summer films achieved that dubious distinction, including the one our users picked to receive the lowest score, the Ashton Kutcher comedy Killers. That was far from the summer's worst-reviewed film, however; that honor went to M. Night Shyamalan's The Last Airbender, which was also the score most overestimated by our users -- by a wide margin. Our users also could not foresee the extent of critical hatred that would eventually fall upon Sex and the City 2, Grown Ups, and Jonah Hex.
However, of the five films you predicted to earn positive reviews (i.e., green Metascores) from critics, only one -- Ridley Scott's Robin Hood -- failed to do so. (A sixth film, The Adjustment Bureau, was bumped from summer into next year.) And only The Karate Kid really surprised our users by earning positive reviews, though a few other films (like The Twilight Saga: Eclipse) were also underestimated by users, turning out to be less mediocre than predicted.
As a whole, users overestimated 55% of the scores, while underestimating 45%. On average, median user guesses were 9.6 points away from the actual Metascore for each film. You can see the spreads for each individual movie below, ranked from most accurate to least accurate.
|Movie||Median Guess||Actual Score||Difference|
|Scott Pilgrim vs. The World||68||69||+1|
|Shrek Forever After||55||58||+3|
|Dinner for Schmucks||60||56||-4|
|The Other Guys||60||64||+4|
|Get Him to the Greek||60||65||+5|
|Letters to Juliet||45||50||+5|
|Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time||55||50||-5|
|Going the Distance||44||51||+7|
|The Sorcerer's Apprentice||53||46||-7|
|Toy Story 3||85||92||+7|
|Eat Pray Love||60||50||-10|
|The Karate Kid||50||61||+11|
|Knight and Day||57||46||-11|
|The Twilight Saga: Eclipse||44||58||+14|
|Sex and the City 2||45||27||-18|
|The Last Airbender||58||20||-38|
|The Adjustment Bureau *||66||tbd||n/a|