User Metascore Predictions for Summer's Biggest Movies

  • Comments: ↓ 7 user comments
  • Publish Date: May 9, 2010

Now you've done it

6,23,1
Breakdown of Average Predictions
Good (Metascore ≥ 61) 6 films
Mixed (40-60) 23 films
Bad (≤ 40) 1 film

A few weeks ago, we asked our users to predict the Metascores for 30 of this summer's biggest film releases. The results appear in the table below.

It might be a long summer. Based on the median guesses, only six movies were predicted to have a Metascore of greater than 61, which is the minimum cutoff for generally positive reviews. Users predicted two films to perform especially well with critics: the Pixar sequel Toy Story 3, and Christopher Nolan's Inception.

Interestingly, users saved their lowest guesses for the Ashton Kutcher action-comedy Killers, although perhaps they were being a bit too kind to Marmaduke. Metacritic voters also appear to have low expectations for the fourth Shrek film, predicting that the Metascore for Shrek Forever After will be even lower than the 58 scored by its predecessor. And though several films had a lower average predicted score thanThe Twilight Saga: Eclipse, just 5% of users expected that film to receive positive reviews from critics, and only 7% predicted good reviews for Sex and the City 2.

At the end of the summer (as well as periodically over the next few months), we'll check in again and compare the actual Metascores to these predictions.

User-Submitted Metascore Predictions for Summer Movies
Movie Release Median Guess Users Predicting
Positive Reviews *
Letters to Juliet May 14 45 12%
Robin Hood May 14 65 67%
MacGruber May 21 47 24%
Shrek Forever After May 21 55 31%
Sex and the City 2 May 27 45 7%
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time May 28 55 26%
Get Him to the Greek June 4 60 45%
Killers June 4 39 8%
Marmaduke June 4 40 11%
The A-Team June 11 52 24%
The Karate Kid June 11 50 20%
Jonah Hex June 18 58 38%
Toy Story 3 June 18 85 99%
Grown Ups June 25 47 18%
Knight and Day June 25 57 37%
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse June 30 44 5%
The Last Airbender July 2 58 39%
Despicable Me July 9 66 71%
Predators July 9 53 28%
Inception July 16 81 98%
The Sorcerer's Apprentice July 16 53 27%
Dinner for Schmucks July 23 60 47%
Salt July 23 60 46%
The Adjustment Bureau July 30 66 73%
The Other Guys August 6 60 42%
Eat Pray Love August 13 60 48%
The Expendables August 13 54 28%
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World August 13 68 65%
The Switch August 20 44 13%
Going the Distance August 27 44 11%

* In this case, "positive reviews" means a prediction of a Metascore of 61 or greater.

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Comments (7)

  • George  

    I was off on Robin Hood and Killers by about 10 points from what I remember, but everything else has been very close. I predicted 83 for Toy Story 3 and 30 for Jonah Hex. Looks like i'll be about 5 off on TS3 and very close on Jonah Hex since it is at 27 right now.

  • Chris  

    One month in, people realized they're wrong about Robin Hood and Get Him to the Greek. The pressure's on for Toy Story 3, Inception and Scott Pilgrim to save this movie season.

  • Evin Coronado  

    Wow, this is gonna one boring year. Inception and Scott Pilgrim for the win!!

  • Akash Kumar  

    Inception makes up for the whole year.

  • Josh  

    Sounds about right, but this is honestly a bit depressing. Not a great movie year it looks like.

  • Jackson  

    Wow i think it would pretty good if The Last Airbender got 58. Cant wait for that movie! : P

  • Christopher  

    This is about where I have it. I only placed two films myself in the 80's and the two listed are those. Robin Hood seems a bit high though.

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