The Oscar Nominations: Metacritic Users vs. The Experts

  • Comments: ↓ 2 user comments
  • Publish Date: February 2, 2010

Well, that was easy

So much for suspense. This year's Academy Award nominations went, well, almost exactly as predicted -- by the experts, and by our users.

We had invited Metacritic users to predict the nominees in four categories (best picture, director, and the two lead acting categories), and we compiled the results to form a consensus (below), which would then be pitted against a variety of expert picks. But with conventional wisdom about the eventual nominees so firmly entrenched, there were few differences among the experts -- or our users.

That said, congratulations are still in order, as Metacritic users correctly guessed 24 out of the 25 nominees in the four major categories, a figure matched by a few experts but topped by none. Pitted against our users were a variety of film industry experts and websites who regularly write about the Oscars and other awards:

Overall Results
Category Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Best Picture 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9
Director 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actress 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actor 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5
# CORRECT: 24 23 24 23 23 23 24 24
% CORRECT: 96% 92% 96% 92% 92% 92% 96% 96%

Below, each expert's individual predictions are compared to the actual results in the four categories.

Best Picture (y = correct pick; n = incorrect pick)
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Avatar y y y y y y y y
The Blind Side     y          
District 9 y y y y y y y y
An Education y y y y y y y y
The Hurt Locker y y y y y y y y
Inglourious Basterds y y y y y y y y
Invictus n n n n n n n n
Precious y y y y y y y y
A Serious Man y y     y   y y
Star Trek       n   n    
Up y y y y y y y y
Up in the Air y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9
Director
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Kathryn Bigelow y y y y y y y y
James Cameron y y y y y y y y
Lee Daniels y y y y y y y y
Jason Reitman y y y y y y y y
Quentin Tarantino y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actress
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Emily Blunt   n            
Sandra Bullock y y y y y y y y
Helen Mirren y   y y y y y y
Carey Mulligan y y y y y y y y
Gabourey Sidibe y y y y y y y y
Meryl Streep y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actor
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Jeff Bridges y y y y   y y y
George Clooney y y y y y y y y
Daniel Day-Lewis         n      
Colin Firth y y y y y y y y
Morgan Freeman y y y y y y y y
Jeremy Renner y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5

Coming soon

Okay, Metacritic users: that was too easy, so let's try something more challenging. Within the next few days (after we set up our new, easier-to-use voting system), we'll supersize our prediction system and ask you to forecast the actual winners in all 24 Oscar categories, to see if you can out-guess an even larger panel of experts.

We're sorry, but comments are closed for this article.

Comments (2)

  • Confused  

    So...this doesn't make any sense. How can everyone choose every option and have every option be the correct pick?

  • Pearl  

    Yea to Metacritic users!!!

What Our Users Are Talking About

  1. /feature/parks-and-recreation-finale-reviews Image
    Episode Review: Parks and Recreation Series Finale
    February 25, 2015 - 1 comment
    1. LamontRaymond : Treat Yo Self! Read »
  2. /feature/reviews-and-results-of-the-87th-academy-awards Image
    2015 Oscars: Full Winners List + Reviews of the Show
    February 23, 2015 - 3 comments
    1. katezoe : Total cinephile and watching the Oscars since I was 10 years old in 1962. This was one of the worst shows... Read »
  3. /feature/most-anticipated-albums-of-2015 Image
    2015 Music Preview: 50+ Notable Upcoming Albums
    January 19, 2015 - 12 comments
    1. MoneyMaker101 : 50 CENT STREET KING IMMORTAL!!! Read »
  4. /feature/2015-videogame-preview Image
    The Most Anticipated Video Games of 2015
    January 14, 2015 - 16 comments
    1. MadJaples : Homefront.....oh dear. I am not holding my breath on that one, considering the first was pretty fekkin dire. Read »
    2. Brolexy : I bought a code GTA5 at Brolexy and will play the next 3 months. Read »
    3. EzioA88 : Arkham Knight certainly first- the Mature rating will only make it better. Other than that, Assassin's Creed:... Read »
  5. /feature/best-of-2014-user-poll-results Image
    Metacritic Users Pick the Best of 2014
    January 7, 2015 - 15 comments
    1. Dal_ReviewedDat : Boyhood is a well crafted film, and should of been celebrated for that and the acting. But 100, no way. As a story... Read »
  6. /feature/best-and-worst-films-of-2014 Image
    The Best and Worst Movies of 2014
    January 6, 2015 - 12 comments
    1. adb7 : What a travesty that "Boyhood" didn't win best picture at the Oscars and received only one award. Well, that puts it... Read »
  7. /feature/best-new-tv-shows-of-2014 Image
    The Best (and Worst) New TV Shows of 2014
    December 23, 2014 - 12 comments
    1. Thug-Negus : Here are my top series watched in 2014 1 Fargo 2 True Detective 3 Game of Thrones 4 Rectify 5 The Affair 6... Read »
  8. /feature/film-critic-top-10-lists-best-movies-of-2014 Image
    Best of 2014: Film Critic Top Ten Lists
    December 6, 2014 - 20 comments
    1. adb7 : Ha ha ha, a would-be "critic" of the critics who wants everything brought down to dollars, McCarthyism, and the LCD.... Read »