The Oscar Nominations: Metacritic Users vs. The Experts

  • Publish Date: February 2, 2010
  • Comments: ↓ 2 user comments

Well, that was easy

So much for suspense. This year's Academy Award nominations went, well, almost exactly as predicted -- by the experts, and by our users.

We had invited Metacritic users to predict the nominees in four categories (best picture, director, and the two lead acting categories), and we compiled the results to form a consensus (below), which would then be pitted against a variety of expert picks. But with conventional wisdom about the eventual nominees so firmly entrenched, there were few differences among the experts -- or our users.

That said, congratulations are still in order, as Metacritic users correctly guessed 24 out of the 25 nominees in the four major categories, a figure matched by a few experts but topped by none. Pitted against our users were a variety of film industry experts and websites who regularly write about the Oscars and other awards:

Overall Results
Category Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Best Picture 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9
Director 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actress 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actor 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5
# CORRECT: 24 23 24 23 23 23 24 24
% CORRECT: 96% 92% 96% 92% 92% 92% 96% 96%

Below, each expert's individual predictions are compared to the actual results in the four categories.

Best Picture (y = correct pick; n = incorrect pick)
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Avatar y y y y y y y y
The Blind Side     y          
District 9 y y y y y y y y
An Education y y y y y y y y
The Hurt Locker y y y y y y y y
Inglourious Basterds y y y y y y y y
Invictus n n n n n n n n
Precious y y y y y y y y
A Serious Man y y     y   y y
Star Trek       n   n    
Up y y y y y y y y
Up in the Air y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9
Director
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Kathryn Bigelow y y y y y y y y
James Cameron y y y y y y y y
Lee Daniels y y y y y y y y
Jason Reitman y y y y y y y y
Quentin Tarantino y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actress
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Emily Blunt   n            
Sandra Bullock y y y y y y y y
Helen Mirren y   y y y y y y
Carey Mulligan y y y y y y y y
Gabourey Sidibe y y y y y y y y
Meryl Streep y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actor
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Jeff Bridges y y y y   y y y
George Clooney y y y y y y y y
Daniel Day-Lewis         n      
Colin Firth y y y y y y y y
Morgan Freeman y y y y y y y y
Jeremy Renner y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5

Coming soon

Okay, Metacritic users: that was too easy, so let's try something more challenging. Within the next few days (after we set up our new, easier-to-use voting system), we'll supersize our prediction system and ask you to forecast the actual winners in all 24 Oscar categories, to see if you can out-guess an even larger panel of experts.

We're sorry, but comments are closed for this article.

Comments (2)

  • Confused  

    So...this doesn't make any sense. How can everyone choose every option and have every option be the correct pick?

  • Pearl  

    Yea to Metacritic users!!!

What Our Users Are Talking About

  1. /feature/music-releases-for-the-week-of-july-20-2015 Image
    Music Monday (7/20): This Week's New Albums + Videos
    July 20, 2015 - 1 comment
    1. moxywoxy : Music releases are now on Fridays. When are you guys going to start publishing weekly new releases on Thursdays or... Read »
  2. /feature/67th-primetime-emmy-award-nominations Image
    2015 Emmy Nominations
    July 16, 2015 - 3 comments
    1. crjohnson1980 : So, not a single nomination for "Justified?" What a load of BS. Read »
    2. ParkerFarron : Rooting for Tatiana Maslany to finally get her Emmy Read »
    3. LamontRaymond : Good for Better Call Saul! (Otherwise, that Drama category is looking a little samey.....) Read »
  3. /feature/dvd-blu-ray-release-calendar-july-2015 Image
    DVD/Blu-ray Release Calendar: July 2015
    July 4, 2015 - 3 comments
    1. Hautewerk : Are there any plans to fix the Blu-ray/DVD release schedule page so that it doesn't display old movies and push some... Read »
  4. /feature/preview-of-this-weekends-new-movies Image
    What Movie Should I See This Weekend?
    July 22, 2015 - 4 comments
    1. ds00094202 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcjbmqiGEpE Read »
  5. /feature/best-new-streaming-movies-and-tv-march-2015 Image
    What to Watch Now: Best New Streaming Movies & TV
    March 18, 2015 - 2 comments
    1. JulianWill : Thanks for the article Jason! Btw, I have just joined the BETA of Filmefy, which is a Netflix search engine. It will... Read »
  6. /feature/ps4-console-hardware-reviews Image
    Hardware Review: Sony PlayStation 4
    November 13, 2013 - 16 comments
    1. bookmyfunction : Superb Story Read »
    2. pyro554 : 7/10... Not enough storage space, need to get a new 2 TB HD put in. Not a big library of new games either, most... Read »
  7. /feature/tv-premiere-dates Image
    Summer/Fall TV Premiere Calendar
    May 6, 2015 - 47 comments
    1. Tek91 : "Club de Cuervos" premieres August 7th on Netflix. Thanks for this useful feature. Read »