Well, that was easy
So much for suspense. This year's Academy Award nominations went, well, almost exactly as predicted -- by the experts, and by our users.
We had invited Metacritic users to predict the nominees in four categories (best picture, director, and the two lead acting categories), and we compiled the results to form a consensus (below), which would then be pitted against a variety of expert picks. But with conventional wisdom about the eventual nominees so firmly entrenched, there were few differences among the experts -- or our users.
That said, congratulations are still in order, as Metacritic users correctly guessed 24 out of the 25 nominees in the four major categories, a figure matched by a few experts but topped by none. Pitted against our users were a variety of film industry experts and websites who regularly write about the Oscars and other awards:
- Edward Douglas from Coming Soon
- Scott Feinberg from And The Winner Is...
- Dave Karger from Entertainment Weekly's Oscar Watch
- Tom O'Neil from the Los Angeles Times' Gold Derby
- Sasha Stone from Awards Daily
- Kristopher Tapley from In Contention
- indieWIRE
| Category | Metacritic Users | CS (Douglas) |
ATWI (Feinberg) |
EW (Karger) |
LAT/GD (O'Neil) |
AD (Stone) |
IC (Tapley) |
INDIEWIRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Director | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Lead Actress | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Lead Actor | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| # CORRECT: | 24 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 |
| % CORRECT: | 96% | 92% | 96% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 96% | 96% |
Below, each expert's individual predictions are compared to the actual results in the four categories.
| Nominee | Metacritic Users | CS (Douglas) |
ATWI (Feinberg) |
EW (Karger) |
LAT/GD (O'Neil) |
AD (Stone) |
IC (Tapley) |
INDIEWIRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avatar |  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The Blind Side | |
|||||||
| District 9 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| An Education | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The Hurt Locker | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Inglourious Basterds | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Invictus |  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Precious | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A Serious Man | |
|
|
|
|
|||
| Star Trek | |
|
||||||
| Up | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Up in the Air | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| # CORRECT: | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Nominee | Metacritic Users | CS (Douglas) |
ATWI (Feinberg) |
EW (Karger) |
LAT/GD (O'Neil) |
AD (Stone) |
IC (Tapley) |
INDIEWIRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathryn Bigelow | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| James Cameron | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lee Daniels | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jason Reitman | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quentin Tarantino | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| # CORRECT: | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Nominee | Metacritic Users | CS (Douglas) |
ATWI (Feinberg) |
EW (Karger) |
LAT/GD (O'Neil) |
AD (Stone) |
IC (Tapley) |
INDIEWIRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Blunt | |
|||||||
| Sandra Bullock | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Helen Mirren | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Carey Mulligan | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gabourey Sidibe | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Meryl Streep | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| # CORRECT: | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Nominee | Metacritic Users | CS (Douglas) |
ATWI (Feinberg) |
EW (Karger) |
LAT/GD (O'Neil) |
AD (Stone) |
IC (Tapley) |
INDIEWIRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Bridges | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| George Clooney | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Daniel Day-Lewis | |
|||||||
| Colin Firth | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Morgan Freeman | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jeremy Renner | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| # CORRECT: | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Coming soon
Okay, Metacritic users: that was too easy, so let's try something more challenging. Within the next few days (after we set up our new, easier-to-use voting system), we'll supersize our prediction system and ask you to forecast the actual winners in all 24 Oscar categories, to see if you can out-guess an even larger panel of experts.
