The Oscar Nominations: Metacritic Users vs. The Experts

  • Comments: ↓ 2 user comments
  • Publish Date: February 2, 2010

Well, that was easy

So much for suspense. This year's Academy Award nominations went, well, almost exactly as predicted -- by the experts, and by our users.

We had invited Metacritic users to predict the nominees in four categories (best picture, director, and the two lead acting categories), and we compiled the results to form a consensus (below), which would then be pitted against a variety of expert picks. But with conventional wisdom about the eventual nominees so firmly entrenched, there were few differences among the experts -- or our users.

That said, congratulations are still in order, as Metacritic users correctly guessed 24 out of the 25 nominees in the four major categories, a figure matched by a few experts but topped by none. Pitted against our users were a variety of film industry experts and websites who regularly write about the Oscars and other awards:

Overall Results
Category Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Best Picture 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9
Director 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actress 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actor 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5
# CORRECT: 24 23 24 23 23 23 24 24
% CORRECT: 96% 92% 96% 92% 92% 92% 96% 96%

Below, each expert's individual predictions are compared to the actual results in the four categories.

Best Picture (y = correct pick; n = incorrect pick)
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Avatar y y y y y y y y
The Blind Side     y          
District 9 y y y y y y y y
An Education y y y y y y y y
The Hurt Locker y y y y y y y y
Inglourious Basterds y y y y y y y y
Invictus n n n n n n n n
Precious y y y y y y y y
A Serious Man y y     y   y y
Star Trek       n   n    
Up y y y y y y y y
Up in the Air y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9
Director
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Kathryn Bigelow y y y y y y y y
James Cameron y y y y y y y y
Lee Daniels y y y y y y y y
Jason Reitman y y y y y y y y
Quentin Tarantino y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actress
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Emily Blunt   n            
Sandra Bullock y y y y y y y y
Helen Mirren y   y y y y y y
Carey Mulligan y y y y y y y y
Gabourey Sidibe y y y y y y y y
Meryl Streep y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lead Actor
Nominee Metacritic Users CS
(Douglas)
ATWI
(Feinberg)
EW
(Karger)
LAT/GD
(O'Neil)
AD
(Stone)
IC
(Tapley)
INDIEWIRE
Jeff Bridges y y y y   y y y
George Clooney y y y y y y y y
Daniel Day-Lewis         n      
Colin Firth y y y y y y y y
Morgan Freeman y y y y y y y y
Jeremy Renner y y y y y y y y
# CORRECT: 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5

Coming soon

Okay, Metacritic users: that was too easy, so let's try something more challenging. Within the next few days (after we set up our new, easier-to-use voting system), we'll supersize our prediction system and ask you to forecast the actual winners in all 24 Oscar categories, to see if you can out-guess an even larger panel of experts.

We're sorry, but comments are closed for this article.

Comments (2)

  • Confused  

    So...this doesn't make any sense. How can everyone choose every option and have every option be the correct pick?

  • Pearl  

    Yea to Metacritic users!!!

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