The experts weigh in

Though we are still three months away from each network's official fall schedule announcement, it's not too early to take a look at which of their current shows will be coming back for another season. While some shows are certain to be renewed, and other clearly struggling programs are obviously not returning, there are many shows in limbo, their fates uncertain. These bubble shows include some usual suspects like Chuck, Fringe, and V, as well as some first-year programs like $#*! My Dad Says and The Chicago Code.

What is the likelihood that these bubble shows will return next season? To answer that question, we have compiled the latest renew/cancel predictions (all posted within the last two weeks) from six different sources:

• EW: Entertainment Weekly (Inside TV blog)
• SPOIL: Spoiler TV
• TVBTN bw: TV by the Numbers Bubble Watch (Robert Seidman)
• TVBTN r/c: TV by the Numbers Renew/Cancel Index (Bill Gorman)
• TVG: TV Guide
• VUL: Vulture

ABC

ABC has actually given early renewals to more shows than any other network. But many of the shows that haven't been renewed yet are in trouble. It will take a federal government bailout to save freshman drama Detroit 187, while fellow newcomer No Ordinary Family also looks doomed. The recently debuted medical drama Off the Map has also been struggling in its short run, with ratings for its most recent episode last night its lowest yet, indicating that it, too, is likely headed for cancellation. Another brand-new show, the Matthew Perry-starring Mr. Sunshine, looked like a hit out of the gate, but last night's second episode fell significantly in the ratings; the program should be safe for now, but further drops could place it on the bubble. And fellow freshman Wednesday sitcom Better With You has also been trending downward; at the moment, its fate could go either way, but if its ratings slide continues -- and if Mr. Sunshine and the upcoming Happy Endings are stronger -- it will quickly become a cancellation target.

The network's remaining two bubble shows are long-running drama Brothers & Sisters, and second year sci-fi show V. The experts offer mixed forecasts for the former, which is hurt by its relatively large production budget. And the struggling V, which barely earned a limited renewal after scoring low ratings in its debut season, could, in theory, pull off the same trick this year; its ratings, though still miniscule, have been ticking upward ever so slightly. But if ABC cancels most of its other hourlong programs, one or even both of these bubble shows could survive to the next season.

ABC Primetime Programs, 2010-2011 Season

Status/Show		Expert Predictions
		EW	SPOIL	TVBTN bw	TVBTN r/c	TVG	VUL
	AFV
	The Bachelor
	Better with You
	Body of Proof	Show has yet to premiere (starts Mar. 29)
	Brothers & Sisters
	Castle	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Cougar Town	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Dancing with the Stars
	Desperate Housewives
	Detroit 187
	Extr. Makeover: Home Ed.
	Grey's Anatomy	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Happy Endings	Show has yet to premiere (starts Apr. 13)
	The Middle	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Mr. Sunshine
	Modern Family	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	My Generation	CANCELED: 2 episodes aired; 6 remaining episodes will not air
	No Ordinary Family
	Off the Map
	Private Practice	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	V
	The Whole Truth	CANCELED: 6 episodes aired; 7 remaining episodes unlikely to air
	Wipeout

Key to show status: = Officially renewed for 2011-12 season = In limbo; no official announcement yet = Officially canceled or series ending this year

Key to predictions: = Very likely renewal = Possible renewal = On the bubble; could go either way = Possible cancellation = Very likely cancellation

CBS

Though the network's ratings are down compared to the 2009-10 season, CBS still leads all networks in overall viewers. And with so many successful shows in its lineup, CBS has fewer shows in danger of cancellation than its competitors do. Still, there are a few shows on the bubble, and none is more endangered than first-year program The Defenders, which no expert found to be safe for next season; don't expect to see it back next year. As Bill Gorman of TV by the Numbers also points out, a few additional CBS shows will also have to go to make way for next fall's new programs. One strong possibility is the suddenly vulnerable CSI: New York, which, though always the lowest rated CSI hour, has had the luxury (until now) of watching even lower rated programs get the ax instead each year. It looks like that lucky streak might finally be over.

Other shows that have a chance -- though much slighter -- of ending this year are The Good Wife and newcomer Blue Bloods. The latter was looking very strong until CBS moved shifted it from Fridays to Wednesdays, but a move back to Fridays could restore its appeal. And the former's critical acclaim could be enough to secure a third season, unless CBS really wants to clear another hour in its schedule -- in which case The Good Wife's numbers (it's the network's lowest-rated non-Friday drama) could make it a target. CBS' crop of new shows this year are mainly successes, with programs like Mike & Molly and Hawaii Five-0 all but guaranteed to return. The news is less rosy for another first-year program, however. As Gorman also notices, CBS always cancels its lowest rated sitcom to make room for a new one. This year, that title falls to $#*! My Dad Says, which may be posting its final tweet tonight.

CBS Primetime Programs, 2010-2011 Season

Status/Show		Expert Predictions
		EW	SPOIL	TVBTN bw	TVBTN r/c	TVG	VUL
	The Amazing Race
	The Big Bang Theory	Renewed through 2013-14 season
	Blue Bloods
	Chaos	Show has yet to premiere (starts Apr. 1)
	Criminal Minds
	C.M.: Suspect Behavior	Criminal Minds spinoff debuted last night to fairly strong ratings, winning its timeslot
	CSI
	CSI: Miami
	CSI: New York
	The Defenders
	The Good Wife
	Hawaii Five-0
	How I Met Your Mother
	Live to Dance
	Mad Love
	Medium	CANCELED: All episodes have aired
	The Mentalist
	Mike & Molly
	NCIS	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	NCIS: Los Angeles
	Rules of Engagement
	$#*! My Dad Says
	Survivor
	Two and a Half Men	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Undercover Boss

The CW

Having already given the ax to its worst performing show -- Life Unexpected -- The CW may not need to take any further action. True, looking at the network's raw numbers, no CW show appears to be performing well when compared to programs on other networks. But when compared to each other, The CW's current scripted programs really aren't far apart from each other, meaning that none stands out as needing to be canceled.

CW Primetime Programs, 2010-2011 Season

Status/Show		Expert Predictions
		EW	SPOIL	TVBTN bw	TVBTN r/c	TVG	VUL
	90210
	America's Next Top Model
	Gossip Girl
	Hellcats
	Life Unexpected	CANCELED: All episodes have aired
	Nikita
	One Tree Hill
	Smallville	ENDING: Show is in its final season; series finale airs May 13
	Supernatural
	The Vampire Diaries

Fox

House, Bones, American Idol. Among the Fox shows not yet officially renewed or canceled, those are the only three that are absolutely safe at this point. Consider everything else to be on the bubble.

Of course, a few shows are so likely to be canceled that calling them "on the bubble" is misleading. Consider both Human Target and Lie to Me to be in this category, as both long-struggling shows are extremely unlikely to be back next year. The brand new sitcom Traffic Light is also floundering, debuting to terrible ratings last week and falling even further in its second week; at this rate, it may not even survive the month.

That leaves three interesting programs with uncertain fates: long-running sci-fi series Fringe, new animated series Bob's Burgers, and the brand new cop drama The Chicago Code. The fate of each of these programs is hard to predict at this stage. As you know, Fringe was recently shifted from Thursdays to Fridays, which could have been a blessing (lower expectations) or a curse (lower viewership). After holding up fairly well in its first few Friday airings, the show's ratings have been slipping noticeably in recent weeks -- even given those lowered expectations -- meaning that Fringe isn't quite as safe as once thought. Though Vulture's Josef Adalian remains confident, stating, "There's no reason not to renew Fringe for at least a limited run next season," both TV by the Numbers analysts suggest that if the show doesn't rebound from last week's nadir, cancellation is certain.

As for the other two programs, Bob's Burgers started strongly and has weakened in recent weeks, while The Chicago Code had a decent but disappointing debut (given that it was heavily promoted during the Super Bowl and had a high-rated House as its lead-in) and fell considerably this week in its second episode. Bob's Burgers could potentially survive as long as it doesn't slip any more, while Code will actually need an increase in ratings to earn a renewal -- not a likely proposition, by any means.

Fox Primetime Programs, 2010-2011 Season

Status/Show		Expert Predictions
		EW	SPOIL	TVBTN bw	TVBTN r/c	TVG	VUL
	American Dad	Has enough finished episodes to at least air a partial season in 2011-12
	American Idol
	Bob's Burgers
	Bones
	Breaking In	Show has yet to premiere (starts Apr. 6)
	The Chicago Code
	The Cleveland Show	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Family Guy	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Fringe
	Glee	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	The Good Guys	CANCELED: All 20 episodes have already aired
	Hell's Kitchen
	House
	Human Target
	Kitchen Nightmares
	Lie to Me
	Lone Star	CANCELED: 2 episodes aired; 4 remaining episodes will not air
	Raising Hope	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Running Wilde	CANCELED: 9 episodes aired; 4 remaining episodes unlikely to air
	The Simpsons	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	Traffic Light

NBC

No Cancellation Watch would be complete without mentioning that Chuck is on the bubble -- in recent years, the word Chuck has become synonymous with "bubble show" -- and NBC indeed faces another difficult decision after the program's strong early-season ratings have faded as the season progressed. Vulture's Adalian thinks the series is certain to come back for at least a half season; the other experts think the decision will go down to the wire.

It's a little easier to predict the fates of newcomers The Cape and Perfect Couples; both are goners. Fellow freshman shows Law and Order: Los Angeles, The Event and Outsourced are also on the bubble at this stage. While the latter has been hampered by its recent timeslot change (Outsourced performed well enough to merit renewal when it followed The Office but is hurting at 10:30), the other two shows are temporarily off NBC's schedule, so it will be impossible to gauge either's status until they return next month. Still, if The Event doesn't improve dramatically from its disappointing fall ratings, it won't be renewed; LOLA may have a bit more breathing room, but it, too, didn't have stellar numbers last fall. The lone bright spot among NBC's new shows is Harry's Law, which is safe at the moment, but if a recent ratings slide continues then even that program could be on the bubble soon.

NBC Primetime Programs, 2010-2011 Season

Status/Show		Expert Predictions
		EW	SPOIL	TVBTN bw	TVBTN r/c	TVG	VUL
	30 Rock	Renewed through 2011-12 season
	America's Next Great Rest.	Show has yet to premiere (starts Mar. 6)
	The Apprentice
	The Biggest Loser
	The Cape
	Chase	EFFECTIVELY CANCELED: Series pulled from schedule with no return date
	Chuck
	Community
	The Event
	Friday Night Lights	ENDING: Show has completed final season on DirecTV; NBC run concludes Jul. 8
	Harry's Law
	Law & Order: Los Angeles
	Law & Order: SVU
	Minute to Win It
	The Office
	Outlaw	CANCELED: All 8 episodes have already aired
	Outsourced
	Parenthood
	Parks & Recreation
	Perfect Couples
	Undercovers	CANCELED: 11 episodes aired; 2 remaining episodes unlikely to air

What do you think?

What bubble shows would you like to see return, and which deserve to be canceled? Let us know in the comments section below.