User Metascore Predictions for Major Summer Films: The Final Results

  • Publish Date: September 4, 2012
  • Comments: ↓ 6 user comments

How close were you this summer?

Median Guess vs. Actual Score
bar
Very Close
(+/- 0-4.5 points)
8 films / 28%
bar
Close
(+/- 5-9.5 points)
10 films / 34%
bar
Not Close
(+/- 10-24 points)
11 films / 38%
bar
So Very Wrong
(+/- 25 points or more)
0 films / 0%

Well, you're getting closer. Back at the start of the summer, we asked you to predict the final Metascores for 30 of the season's most notable releases (one of which, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, was later bumped to a 2013 release date). On average, your median guesses were 8.5 points away from the actual scores for each film. That may sound like a lot, but it beats last year's average difference of 9.0 points (and 2010's 9.6-point differential). So consider yourself improved.

That said, the number of Metascores predicted at the highest accuracy level (with a difference of less than 5 points) fell from 12 last year to 8 this year. However, users avoided wildly inaccurate predictions this year for the first time. Your worst forecast, as a group, was for the Ben Stiller comedy The Watch, which had a final Metascore that was 19 points lower than predicted. Users underestimated the score for Moonrise Kingdom by 9 points, making that the worst guess in the opposite direction. And users were exactly on target with Battleship, correctly predicting that Peter Berg's film would give critics a sinking feeling.

Overall, users proved overly optimistic when making predictions, ultimately overestimating the scores for 21 of the 29 films. You can view the final spreads for each of the films in the survey below, ranked from most to least accurate.

Comparison of User Metascore Predictions vs. Actual Scores for Summer Movies
Movie Median Guess  Actual  Score Difference
Battleship   41   41   0
Ice Age: Continental Drift   50   49   -1
That's My Boy   30   31   1
What to Expect When You're Expecting   42   41   -1
The Dictator   60   58   -2
Men in Black 3   55   58   3
Savages   64   61   -3
The Amazing Spider-Man   70.5   66   -4.5
Ruby Sparks   71   66   -5
Snow White and the Huntsman   62   57   -5
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World   64.5   59   -5.5
The Dark Knight Rises   84   78   -6
Ted   55   62   7
Dark Shadows   63   55   -8
Hope Springs   58   66   8
Magic Mike   64   72   8
The Expendables 2   42.5   51   8.5
Moonrise Kingdom   75   84   9
The Bourne Legacy   71   61   -10
Chernobyl Diaries   43   32   -11
Brave   81   69   -12
Lawless   71   58   -13
Prometheus   78   65   -13
Rock of Ages   61   47   -14
The Campaign   65   50   -15
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter   59   42   -17
To Rome With Love   72.5   55   -17.5
Total Recall   61.5   43   -18.5
The Watch   55   36   -19
G.I. Joe: Retaliation   41   n/a (delayed to 2013)

Comments (6)

  • DanBurrito  

    Confused: How did The Amazing Spider-Man get predicted 70.5, Expendables 2 42.5, To Rome with Love 72.5 etc? Did people even know that it's impossible to get a decimal metascore?

  • DanBurrito  

    Congrats on Battleship. Jeez, they'll make a movie out of anything nowadays.

  • GaryW123  

    Hey gi joe guess was spot on.

  • Happymonk  

    All this shows really is how harsh a lot of movie reviews are. Quite a few of those films deserve better scores than they got.

  • cockaigne  

    My guess is the user scores are even closer to our predictions.

  • Hootyea  

    "Overall, users proved overly optimistic when making predictions, ultimately overestimating the scores for 21 of the 29 films."

    And still, this just shows us how most people expect today's and upcoming films to improve, which imo just show a decline in most cases, finding an exception to the norm from time to time.

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