User Metascore Predictions for Major Summer Films

  • Comments: ↓ 6 user comments
  • Publish Date: May 2, 2012

The results are in

How will critics respond to this year's crop of summer films? Over the past week, we have been collecting predictions from our users for the Metascores for 30 summer movies, including all of the major event films as well as the most notable indies. The results are displayed in the table below.

Apparently, we aren't alone in thinking that the coming summer seems more promising than normal; our users predicted over half of the 30 films (17, to be exact) to wind up with positive reviews from critics (with Metascores of 61 or greater). While some of that may have to do with our selection of which 30 films to feature, that number is significantly higher than the previous two years in which we've done this survey.

The films receiving the highest median guesses were Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises (84), Pixar's Brave (81), and Ridley Scott's Prometheus (78). In fact, 100% of Metacritic users participated in the survey expected a positive critical reception for the Batman sequel, and the other two films weren't far behind. While it is rather unsurprising that these films topped the list, users also predicted that some less obvious choices—including the Tom Cruise musical Rock of Ages (61) and Snow White and the Huntsman (62)—to also wind up with generally good reviews.

Users predicted just one of the 30 films to receive overwhelmingly negative reviews from critics: the Adam Sandler-starring That's My Boy (30). But voters also gave Battleship (41), What to Expect When You're Expecting (42), The Expendables 2 (42.5), and G.I. Joe: Retaliation (41) extremely slim chances of scoring positive notices. Our users were also bearish about one of the summer's most expensive movies, Men in Black 3 (55); only a quarter of voters expected that film to perform well with critics.

Of course, we won't know how accurate these predictions are until summer is over, and we'll check back during the first week in September to see how well you performed. In the meantime, you can see how accurate Metacritic users were in 2010 and 2011, or find out more about all of the season's upcoming films in our Summer Movie Preview.

User-Submitted Metascore Predictions for 2012 Summer Movies
Movie Release Median Guess % Predicting
Positive Reviews*
Range of Predictions**
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter June 22 59 44% bar
The Amazing Spider-Man July 3 70.5 89% bar
Battleship May 18 41 1% bar
The Bourne Legacy August 3 71 91% bar
Brave June 22 81 99% bar
The Campaign August 10 65 67% bar
Chernobyl Diaries May 25 43 16% bar
The Dark Knight Rises July 20 84 100% bar
Dark Shadows May 11 63 61% bar
The Dictator May 16 60 47% bar
The Expendables 2 August 17 42.5 3% bar
G.I. Joe: Retaliation June 29 41 8% bar
Hope Springs August 10 58 32% bar
Ice Age: Continental Drift July 13 50 16% bar
Lawless August 31 71 88% bar
Magic Mike June 29 64 61% bar
Men in Black 3 May 25 55 25% bar
Moonrise Kingdom May 25 75 98% bar
Neighborhood Watch July 27 55 26% bar
Prometheus June 8 78 97% bar
Rock of Ages June 15 61 53% bar
Ruby Sparks July 25 71 84% bar
Savages July 6 64 61% bar
Seeking a Friend ... End of the World June 22 64.5 72% bar
Snow White and the Huntsman June 1 62 55% bar
Ted July 13 55 36% bar
That's My Boy June 15 30 1% bar
To Rome With Love June 22 72.5 87% bar
Total Recall August 3 61.5 51% bar
What to Expect When You're Expecting May 18 42 5% bar

* In this case, "positive reviews" means a prediction of a Metascore of 61 or greater.
** Range of guesses within two standard deviations of the mean; in other words, outliers are excluded.

Comments (6)

  • LamontRaymond  

    I think the group is going to be WAY off on the new Spider-Man, which looks so samey and crappy. I also think Men in Black 3 will be firmly in the red zone. On the other hand, Ted, I predict, will surprise many of us by being critically acclaimed. And a 61 for Rock of Ages? No. The oversized role for Zeta-Jones will sink that film.

  • 89iajo  

    I have no idea what to say about Brave, the trailers haven't shown that much. Abraham Lincoln will be in the green area in my opinion, and Ted should be too. Dark Shadows looks hilarious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • swill388  

    You have done a great job. Keep posting such type of information regarding movies. I love to watch and download movies.

  • Zilcell  

    Well Men in Black III seems to be getting generally positive reviews now, so it looks like some people were wrong.

  • Zilcell  

    Also it looks like Brave is taking risks. Hopefully those risks pay off and it turns out good.

  • pharmach  

    the dark knight rises and the expendables 2 are the best summer movies of 2012.

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