Oscar Best Picture Race: Critics vs. The Academy

This year's best picture nominees

With the February 22nd date of this year's Academy Awards ceremony fast approaching, it's time to take a quick look at this year's best picture race—as well as those from the past two decades—to see where critics and Oscar voters diverge.

First, as a recap, here are this year's best picture nominees:

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won *
Boyhood	100	BFCA Bos Chi LA Lon NY Tor
Selma	89
Birdman	88
The Grand Budapest Hotel	88	OFCS SE
Whiplash	88
The Imitation Game	73
American Sniper	72
The Theory of Everything	72
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The LEGO Movie	83
Gone Girl	79
A Most Violent Year	79	NBR
Guardians of the Galaxy	76
Nightcrawler	76
Goodbye to Language	75	NatSoc

* Key to critic awards: BFCA = Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice Awards), Bos = Boston Society of Film Critics, Chi = Chicago Film Critics Association, LA = Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Lon = London Film Critics' Circle, NatSoc = National Society of Film Critics, NBR = National Board of Review, NY = New York Film Critics Circle, OFCS = Online Film Critics Society, SE = Southeastern Film Critics Association, Tor = Toronto Film Critics Association

If Boyhood captures this year's best picture trophy as widely expected, it will mark the second year in a row that Academy voters have opted for the year's best-reviewed film. That, however, is not the norm. More often than not, the best picture Oscar does not go to the critics' favorite movie of the year. In fact, those films don't always get nominated by the Academy. And, as you can see below in our quick look back at the last two decades of best picture nominees, having the best reviews among just the nominated films isn't even enough to guarantee a win.

Previous years: The last 20 best picture races

According to the data below, the year's overall highest-scoring (i.e., best-reviewed) film ...

• Has won best picture in just 3 of the 20 years (15%)
• Has been nominated but did not win best picture in 7 of the 20 years (35%)
• Was not nominated for best picture in 10 of the 20 years (50%)

Though it does not apply this year (since Boyhood, the year's highest-scoring film, was nominated), in the 10 years when the high-scoring overall film was not under consideration for best picture, the Oscar went to the highest-scoring nominee just 3 times (30%). The Oscar has actually been awarded to the lowest-scoring (worst-reviewed) nominee three times as well.

Since the best picture nominee pool was expanded six years ago, no film below fourth place among the nominees (ranked by Metascore) has won the Oscar. And, in the same period, the lowest winning Metascore was Argo's 86. In other words, if you were thinking of picking American Sniper, The Imitation Game, or The Theory of Everything in your Oscar pool, you may want to reconsider.

Of course, what stands out the most when looking at past years is that Academy voters and film critics appear to be two very distinct groups, and there is no predicting when their tastes will overlap. A high Metascore is no guarantee of victory; nor are previous awards handed out by various critic groups. (See The Social Network four years ago, which swept nearly every major award but could not grab the Oscar.) What's especially striking is the number of great films that never even get nominated, including numerous titles that have scored 90 or higher.

See for yourself: Below are each year's best picture nominees, ranked by Metascore from best- to worst-reviewed. The Oscar best picture winner each year is marked with a star (), while each year's highest-scoring film is marked with a .

2014 (86th) Academy Awards (Films released in 2013)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won *
12 Years a Slave	97	BFCA Bos Chi Lon OFCS SE
Gravity	96	LA
Her	91	LA NBR
American Hustle	90	NY
Nebraska	86
Dallas Buyers Club	84
Captain Phillips	83
Philomena	76
The Wolf of Wall Street	75
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Before Midnight	94
Inside Llewyn Davis	92	NatSoc Tor
All Is Lost	87

* Key to critic awards: BFCA = Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice Awards), Bos = Boston Society of Film Critics, Chi = Chicago Film Critics Association, LA = Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Lon = London Film Critics' Circle, NatSoc = National Society of Film Critics, NBR = National Board of Review, NY = New York Film Critics Circle, OFCS = Online Film Critics Society, SE = Southeastern Film Critics Association, Tor = Toronto Film Critics Association

85th Academy Awards (2012 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Zero Dark Thirty	95	Bos Chi NBR NY
Amour	94	LA Lon NatSoc
Argo	86	BFCA OFCS SE
Beasts of the Southern Wild	86
Lincoln	86
Django Unchained	81
Silver Linings Playbook	81
Life of Pi	79
Les Misérables	63
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Master	86	Tor
Moonrise Kingdom	84
Looper	84

84th Academy Awards (2011 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
The Artist	89	BFCA Bos Lon NY
Moneyball	87
The Tree of Life	85	Chi OFCS Tor
The Descendants	84	LA SE
Hugo	83	NBR
Midnight in Paris	81
War Horse	72
The Help	62
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	46
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
A Separation	95
Take Shelter	85
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	85
Certified Copy	82
Beginners	81
Melancholia	80	NatSoc
Drive	78
Bridesmaids	75

83rd Academy Awards (2010 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
The Social Network	95	BFCA Bos Chi LA Lon NatSoc NBR NY OFCS SE Tor
Toy Story 3	92
Winter's Bone	90
The King's Speech	88
The Kids Are All Right	86
127 Hours	82
True Grit	80
Black Swan	79
The Fighter	79
Inception	74
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
A Prophet	90	Lon
Animal Kingdom	83
Blue Valentine	81
Another Year	80

82nd Academy Awards (2009 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
The Hurt Locker	94	BFCA Bos Chi LA NatSoc NY OFCS
Up	88
An Education	85
Avatar	83
Up in the Air	83	NBR SE
District 9	81
Precious	79
A Serious Man	79
Inglourious Basterds	69	Tor
The Blind Side	53
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Crazy Heart	83
Fantastic Mr. Fox	83
In the Loop	83
The White Ribbon	82
The Messenger	77
A Single Man	77

81st Academy Awards (2008 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Slumdog Millionaire	86	BFCA Bos NBR
Milk	84	NY SE
Frost/Nixon	80
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button	70
The Reader	58
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days	97
WALL-E	94	Bos Chi LA OFCS
Waltz With Bashir	91	NatSoc
Happy-Go-Lucky	84
Hunger	82	Tor
Rachel Getting Married	82
Tell No One	82
The Wrestler	81	Lon
Wendy and Lucy	80	Tor
Iron Man	79
The Visitor	79

80th Academy Awards (2007 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
There Will Be Blood	92	LA NatSoc
No Country for Old Men	91	BFCA Bos Chi Lon NBR NY OFCS SE Tor
Atonement	85
Michael Clayton	82
Juno	81
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Ratatouille	96
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly	92
Persepolis	90
Once	88
Away from Her	88
The Bourne Ultimatum	85
The Savages	85
Knocked Up	85
Sweeney Todd	83
Eastern Promises	82

79th Academy Awards (2006 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
The Queen	91	Tor
Letters From Iwo Jima	89	LA NBR
The Departed	86	BFCA Bos Chi SE
Little Miss Sunshine	80
Babel	69
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Pan's Labyrinth	98	NatSoc
United 93	90	Lon NY OFCS
Borat	89
The Lives of Others	89
Half Nelson	85
Children of Men	84
Old Joy	84
Volver	84
Casino Royale	81
Dreamgirls	76

78th Academy Awards (2005 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Capote	88	NatSoc
Brokeback Mountain	87	BFCA Bos LA Lon NY SE
Good Night, and Good Luck	80	NBR
Munich	74
Crash	69	Chi
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Best of Youth	89
The Constant Gardener	82
Downfall	82
Pride & Prejudice	82
The Squid and the Whale	82
A History of Violence	81	OFCS Tor
King Kong	81
Syriana	76

77th Academy Awards (2004 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Sideways	94	BFCA Bos Chi LA Lon NY SE Tor
Million Dollar Baby	86	NatSoc
The Aviator	77
Ray	73
Finding Neverland	67	NBR
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Before Sunset	90
The Incredibles	90
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind	89	OFCS
Maria Full of Grace	87
Kill Bill: Vol. 2	83
Vera Drake	83
Hotel Rwanda	79
The Motorcycle Diaries	75

76th Academy Awards (2003 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
LOTR: The Return of the King	94	BFCA Chi NY OFCS SE
Lost in Translation	89	Tor
Mystic River	84	Bos NBR
Master and Commander: Far Side of the World	81	Lon
Seabiscuit	72
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Triplets of Belleville	91
American Splendor	90	LA NatSoc
Finding Nemo	90
The School of Rock	82
A Mighty Wind	81
The Station Agent	81
City of God	79
Dirty Pretty Things	78

75th Academy Awards (2002 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	88	OFCS
The Pianist	85	Bos NatSoc
Chicago	82	BFCA
The Hours	81	NBR SE
Gangs of New York	72
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Spirited Away	94
Bloody Sunday	90
Y Tu Mamá También	88
Talk to Her	86
About Schmidt	85	LA Lon
Far From Heaven	84	Chi NY
The Quiet American	84
Adaptation.	83	Tor
Rabbit-Proof Fence	80
Minority Report	80
The Piano Teacher	79
Punch-Drunk Love	78

74th Academy Awards (2001 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring	92
Gosford Park	90
In the Bedroom	86	LA
A Beautiful Mind	72	BFCA
Moulin Rouge!	66	Lon NBR
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Werckmeister Harmonies	92
Ghost World	88
In the Mood for Love	85
Lantana	84
No Man's Land	84
Shrek	84
Amores Perros	83
Waking Life	82
Mulholland Drive	81	Bos Chi NatSoc NY OFCS
Memento	80	OFCS SE Tor
The Royal Tenenbaums	75
Black Hawk Down	74

73th Academy Awards (2000 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon	93	LA Tor
Traffic	86	NY
Erin Brockovich	73
Chocolat	64
Gladiator	64	BFCA
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Yi yi: A One and a Two...	92	NatSoc
Almost Famous	90	Bos Chi OFCS SE
Chicken Run	88
The Wind Will Carry Us	86
Before Night Falls	85
You Can Count on Me	85
High Fidelity	79
Best in Show	78
Pollock	77
The Virgin Suicides	76
Billy Elliot	74
Cast Away	73
Wonder Boys	73
Quills	70	NBR

72nd Academy Awards (1999 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
American Beauty	86	BFCA Chi Lon NBR OFCS SE
The Insider	84	LA
The Cider House Rules	75
The Sixth Sense	64
The Green Mile	61
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Topsy-Turvy	90	NatSoc NY
Being John Malkovich	90	Lon NatSoc
Toy Story 2	88
All About My Mother	87
Boys Don't Cry	86
The Straight Story	86
The Iron Giant	85
Election	83
Three Kings	82	Bos
Magnolia	77	Tor
The Talented Mr. Ripley	76
The Matrix	73

71st Academy Awards (1998 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Saving Private Ryan	90	BFCA Chi LA Lon NY OFCS SE Tor
Shakespeare in Love	87
The Thin Red Line	78
Elizabeth	75
Life Is Beautiful	59
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Truman Show	90
Rushmore	86
Out of Sight	85	Bos NatSoc
A Simple Plan	82
Happiness	81
Central Station	80
Affliction	79
The Last Days of Disco	76
Bulworth	75
Gods and Monsters	74	NBR

70th Academy Awards (1997 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
L.A. Confidential	90	BFCA Bos Chi LA Lon NatSoc NBR NY OFCS SE
The Full Monty	75
Titanic	74
Good Will Hunting	70
As Good As It Gets	67
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
The Sweet Hereafter	90	Tor
Boogie Nights	85
The Apostle	83
In the Company of Men	81
Donnie Brasco	76
Grosse Pointe Blank	76
The Full Monty	75
The Ice Storm	72

69th Academy Awards (1996 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Secrets & Lies	91	LA
Shine	87	NBR
The English Patient	87
Fargo	85	BFCA Chi Lon NY SE
Jerry Maguire	77
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Sling Blade	84
Welcome to the Dollhouse	83
Trainspotting	83	Bos
Flirting with Disaster	81
Big Night	80
The People vs. Larry Flynt	79
Lone Star	78
Breaking the Waves	76	NatSoc

68th Academy Awards (1995 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Sense and Sensibility	84	BFCA Bos NBR
Babe	83	Lon NatSoc
Il Postino	81
Apollo 13	77	Chi SE
Braveheart	68
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Crumb	93
Toy Story	92
To Die For	86
Leaving Las Vegas	82	LA NY
Get Shorty	82
Dead Man Walking	80
Before Sunrise	77
The Usual Suspects	77
Heat	76
The Brothers McMullen	73
Casino	73
The City of Lost Children	73

67th Academy Awards (1994 films)

Best Picture Nominees	Metascore	Major Critic Awards Won
Pulp Fiction	94	Bos LA NatSoc NBR SE
Quiz Show	88	NY
Forrest Gump	82	NBR
Four Weddings and a Funeral	81
The Shawshank Redemption	80
Notable films not nominated for best picture:
Hoop Dreams	98	Chi
Little Women	87
The Last Seduction	85
The Lion King	83
Four Weddings and a Funeral	81

More Oscar coverage to come

Check back later this week as we take a closer look at predicting the key Oscar races. Next week, just before the ceremony, we'll reveal our users' predictions and sort through the experts' picks in all 24 categories. In the meantime, give us your own Oscar picks, and review this year's nominees.