Final 2018 Oscar Predictions from Experts and Users

  • Publish Date: March 1, 2018
  • Comments: ↓ 1 user comment

Expert predictions updated on Sunday 3/4 at 10:34am. The best picture race is now a tie as Three Billboards has caught up to The Shape of Water with the experts. No other races have changed, though the documentary short race is much closer than it was previously.

The shape of the race

Image

While there seems to be little drama in the four acting categories as we head into Oscar weekend, the best picture race appears to be wide open.

The 90th Annual Academy Awards ceremony will air live on ABC on Sunday night at 8pm ET (5pm PT), with Jimmy Kimmel returning as host and extra safeguards in place to prevent a repeat of last year's best picture announcement fiasco. If predictions hold, The Shape of Water will lead all films with four wins (to go with its year-leading 13 nominations)—but we all know that these ceremonies never go exactly as planned. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri or even Dunkirk (which has the edge in several technical categories) could wind up with the most trophies by the end of Sunday evening.

Below, we have aggregated predictions from 95 entertainment writers, critics, and awards experts (a list of names can be found at the bottom of the page), and compared them to the votes cast by over 5,500 Metacritic visitors who participated in our 9th annual Oscar poll. Also listed are the latest betting odds in each category as published at Ladbrokes (as of March 1st).

Best picture and director

While Guillermo del Toro is the overwhelming favorite to take home his first best director trophy, his film is but one of three best picture contenders that appear to still be in the mix for the night's biggest prize. While Get Out may appear to have the worst chances of that trio (with Three Billboards and The Shape of Water trading off as the favorite), don't rule it out. As the only one of those three films without any negative baggage attached, Jordan Peele's much-praised film could sneak in for the win as the underdog, much like Moonlight (eventually) did last year.

Best Picture

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 11:10 (tie) The Shape of Water -AND- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 36% Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 35%
The Shape of Water 6:4 Get Out 25% The Shape of Water 33%
Get Out 10:1     Dunkirk 9%

Best Director

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Guillermo del Toro
The Shape of Water
1:10 Guillermo del Toro
The Shape of Water
96% Guillermo del Toro
The Shape of Water
62%
Christopher Nolan
Dunkirk
6:1 Christopher Nolan
Dunkirk
3% Christopher Nolan
Dunkirk
20%
Greta Gerwig
Lady Bird
10:1 Greta Gerwig
Lady Bird
1% Greta Gerwig
Lady Bird
8%

Acting

Unfortunately for any movie fans looking for some suspense during the Oscar broadcast, all four of the acting races appear to be set. There may be a little wiggle room in the supporting races, but it seems unlikely that we'll see any upsets.

Lead Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Frances McDormand
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1:12 Frances McDormand
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
96% Frances McDormand
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
71%
Saoirse Ronan
Lady Bird
10:1 Sally Hawkins
The Shape of Water
2% Saoirse Ronan
Lady Bird
11%
Sally Hawkins
The Shape of Water
20:1     Sally Hawkins
The Shape of Water
10%

Lead Actor

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Gary Oldman
Darkest Hour
1:25 Gary Oldman
Darkest Hour
97% Gary Oldman
Darkest Hour
68%
Timothée Chalamet
Call Me by Your Name
16:1 three tied with ... 1% Daniel Day-Lewis
Phantom Thread
13%
Daniel Kaluuya
Get Out
16:1     Timothée Chalamet
Call Me by Your Name
10%

Supporting Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Allison Janney
I, Tonya
1:8 Allison Janney
I, Tonya
84% Allison Janney
I, Tonya
56%
Laurie Metcalf
Lady Bird
9:2 Laurie Metcalf
Lady Bird
14% Laurie Metcalf
Lady Bird
21%
all others 25:1 two tied with ... 1% Octavia Spencer
The Shape of Water
14%

Supporting Actor

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Sam Rockwell
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1:9 Sam Rockwell
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
91% Sam Rockwell
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
65%
Willem Dafoe
The Florida Project
5:1 Willem Dafoe
The Florida Project
8% Willem Dafoe
The Florida Project
17%
Christopher Plummer
All the Money in the World
25:1 Christopher Plummer
All the Money in the World
1% Woody Harrelson
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
8%

Writing

While 89-year-old James Ivory is almost certain to get his first Oscar win in four tries, the original screenplay category is one of this year's more competitive races, as it includes all of the films still in the running for best picture.

Original Screenplay

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Jordan Peele
Get Out
5:4 Jordan Peele
Get Out
64% Martin McDonagh
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
37%
Martin McDonagh
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6:4 Martin McDonagh
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
30% Jordan Peele
Get Out
31%
Greta Gerwig
Lady Bird
9:4 Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
The Shape of Water
3% Greta Gerwig
Lady Bird
16%

Adapted Screenplay

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
James Ivory
Call Me by Your Name
1:10 James Ivory
Call Me by Your Name
96% James Ivory
Call Me by Your Name
66%
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Mudbound
10:1 Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Mudbound
3% Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Logan
14%

Other films and shorts

Pixar's Coco apparently has the animated feature category locked up, but the documentary and (to a lesser extent) foreign film categories are a tougher call this year. If Faces Places wins in the latter category, director Agnes Varda will be this year's (and any year's) oldest Oscar recipient by at least a few days (edging out fellow 89-year-old James Ivory, the presumed adapted screenplay winner).

Note that the experts rarely get all three short film categories correct (and can sometimes botch all three picks), so you may want to wing it when filling out your office pool. That said, it looks like Dear Basketball, an animated adaptation of a Kobe Bryant poem (!), is headed for a win, as may be the exceptionally timely DeKalb Elementary, which follows a gunman as he enters a school.

Animated Feature

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Coco 1:25 Coco 100% Coco 89%
The Breadwinner 14:1     Loving Vincent 6%

Documentary Feature

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Faces Places 2:7 Faces Places 51% Faces Places 36%
Icarus 4:1 Icarus 34% Last Men in Aleppo 26%
Last Men in Aleppo 10:1 Last Men in Aleppo 11% Icarus 24%

Foreign Language Film

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
A Fantastic Woman 4:7 A Fantastic Woman 65% A Fantastic Woman 42%
The Square 13:8 The Insult 16% The Square 27%
Loveless 7:1 The Square 15% Loveless 19%

Animated Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Dear Basketball 4:11 Dear Basketball 71% Dear Basketball 28%
Lou 3:1 Garden Party 11% Lou 28%
Garden Party 8:1 Lou 11% Negative Space 18%

Documentary Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Edith + Eddie 2:5 Edith + Eddie 38% Heroin(e) 34%
Heroin(e) 5:2 Heroin(e) 31% 3 tied with ... 18%
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 8:1 Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 25%    

Live Action Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
DeKalb Elementary 4:11 DeKalb Elementary 79% The Silent Child 34%
The Silent Child 7:2 The Silent Child 8% The Eleven O'Clock 22%
The Eleven O'Clock 6:1 My Nephew Emmett 8% DeKalb Elementary 17%

Music

If you are looking for someone from the alternative or pop music worlds to pick up an Oscar on Sunday, you may be disappointed. Radiohead's Jonny Greenwood is an underdog (though not entirely out of the running) in the original score category, while the Academy is expected to pick a more traditional musical number in the song category rather than offerings from the likes of Sufjan Stevens or Mary J. Blige.

Original Score

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Alexandre Desplat
The Shape of Water
2:9 Alexandre Desplat
The Shape of Water
86% Alexandre Desplat
The Shape of Water
43%
Hans Zimmer
Dunkirk
5:1 Jonny Greenwood
Phantom Thread
11% Hans Zimmer
Dunkirk
32%
Jonny Greenwood
Phantom Thread
10:1     Jonny Greenwood
Phantom Thread
14%

Original Song

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
"Remember Me"
from Coco
8:11 "Remember Me"
from Coco
60% "Remember Me"
from Coco
42%
"This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman 11:8 "This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman 36% "Mystery Of Love" from Call Me by Your Name 26%
"Mystery Of Love" from Call Me by Your Name 10:1 "Mighty River" from Mudbound 3% "This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman 25%

Technical categories

While Roger Deakins may seem the overwhelming favorite in the cinematography race, the hugely respected industry veteran has been nominated 13 times before and was denied the trophy every time. So consider that category still in play, though the only technical category that truly appears to be anything close to a toss-up is the visual effects race.

Cinematography

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Roger A. Deakins
Blade Runner 2049
1:8 Roger A. Deakins
Blade Runner 2049
69% Roger A. Deakins
Blade Runner 2049
66%
Hoyte van Hoytema
Dunkirk
6:1 Dan Laustsen
The Shape of Water
15% Hoyte van Hoytema
Dunkirk
19%
Dan Laustsen
The Shape of Water
12:1 Hoyte van Hoytema
Dunkirk
12% Dan Laustsen
The Shape of Water
12%

Costume Design

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Phantom Thread 1:7 Phantom Thread 94% Phantom Thread 52%
Beauty and the Beast 5:1 The Shape of Water 3% The Shape of Water 24%
        Beauty and the Beast 15%

Film Editing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Lee Smith
Dunkirk
4:9 Lee Smith
Dunkirk
76% Lee Smith
Dunkirk
50%
Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Baby Driver
6:4 Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Baby Driver
23% Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Baby Driver
31%
Sidney Wolinksy
The Shape of Water
20:1     Sidney Wolinksy
The Shape of Water
10%

Makeup & Hairstyling

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Darkest Hour 1:16 Darkest Hour 99% Darkest Hour 80%
Victoria & Abdul 8:1 Wonder 1% Wonder 12%

Production Design

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
The Shape of Water 1:4 The Shape of Water 90% Blade Runner 2049 45%
Blade Runner 2049 3:1 Blade Runner 2049 9% The Shape of Water 36%

Sound Editing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Dunkirk 1:10 Dunkirk 89% Dunkirk 48%
Baby Driver 7:1 Baby Driver 6% Baby Driver 22%
Blade Runner 2049 14:1 Blade Runner 2049 3% Blade Runner 2049 18%

Sound Mixing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Dunkirk 1:6 Dunkirk 91% Dunkirk 45%
Baby Driver 5:1 Baby Driver 9% Baby Driver 24%
Blade Runner 2049 12:1     Blade Runner 2049 18%

Visual Effects

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image Image
Blade Runner 2049 4:6 War for the Planet of the Apes 73% Blade Runner 2049 54%
War for the Planet of the Apes 6:5 Blade Runner 2049 23% War for the Planet of the Apes 27%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi 14:1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 3% Star Wars: The Last Jedi 13%

List of experts

The expert predictions compiled above come from the following sources (note that not every expert made picks in every category):


* As reported at Gold Derby (reflecting any updates through March 2, 2018).
** As reported at Movie City News (Gurus o' Gold) on March 2, 2018 .

Check our site Monday morning for the final results as we reveal which users and experts had the most accurate predictions. We'll also collect reviews of the broadcast from TV critics.


Comments (1)

  • TheMetacritiqer  

    Glass Castle was the perfect movie to be on here. I can't take these awards seriously as for me Star wars and Logan were absolutely the best films, even experiences, of the year.

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