Updated Sunday 2/28 at 1:20p.
Oscars so predictable
It should be just a bit easier to complete your Oscar pool this year. Almost all of the races heading into this weekend's Oscar ceremony appear to be settled, though you can usually count on one upset or two. If not, we could be in for a boring night on Sunday when Chris Rock hosts the 88th Annual Academy Awards ceremony, airing at 8:30pm ET (5:30pm PT) on ABC.
Below, we've aggregated predictions from nearly 70 entertainment writers, critics, and awards experts, and compared them to the votes cast by over 6,600 Metacritic visitors who voted in our 7th annual Oscar poll. Also listed are the latest betting odds in each category as published at Bet365 (as of Monday, February 22).
Best picture and director
The best picture race is actually one of the most competitive categories this year, despite the fact that it has a fairly clear favorite, with The Revenant the consensus pick of experts and Metacritic users in addition to oddsmakers. And that film's director, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, looks likely to score back-to-back wins in the director category, after winning for Birdman last year. (Iñárritu also produced both films, and co-wrote Birdman, which means he could wind up with a total of five Academy Award trophies in a two-year span).
Best Picture
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| The Revenant | 8:15 | The Revenant | 66% | The Revenant | 37% |
| Spotlight | 9:4 | Spotlight | 21% | Spotlight | 31% |
| The Big Short | 5:1 | The Big Short | 13% | Mad Max: Fury Road | 16% |
Best Director
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Alejandro G. Iñárritu The Revenant |
1:10 | Alejandro G. Iñárritu The Revenant |
88% | Alejandro G. Iñárritu The Revenant |
49% |
| George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
13:2 | George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
12% | George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
41% |
Acting
For the third straight year, all four acting categories appear to have certain winners well in advance of the Oscar ceremony. Not one expert dared to pick against Brie Larson and only one did so against Leonardo DiCaprio in the lead categories—both will be first-time winners if they follow through on expectations—and only a handful went against the consensus in the supporting categories.
Lead Actress
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Brie Larson Room |
1:25 | Brie Larson Room |
100% | Brie Larson Room |
67% |
| Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
12:1 | Cate Blanchett Carol |
16% | ||
| Cate Blanchett Carol |
33:1 | Jennifer Lawrence Joy |
8% | ||
| Jennifer Lawrence Joy |
33:1 | Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
6% | ||
Lead Actor
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
1:100 | Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
99% | Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
87% |
| Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl |
20:1 | Bryan Cranston Trumbo |
1% | Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs |
4% |
| Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs |
25:1 | Matt Damon The Martian |
3% | ||
Supporting Actress
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
4:9 | Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
94% | Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
35% |
| Kate Winslet Steve Jobs |
7:2 | Kate Winslet Steve Jobs |
6% | Kate Winslet Steve Jobs |
20% |
| Rooney Mara Carol |
4:1 | Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful Eight |
19% | ||
Supporting Actor
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Sylvester Stallone Creed |
2:7 | Sylvester Stallone Creed |
90% | Sylvester Stallone Creed |
52% |
| Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
11:4 | Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
6% | Tom Hardy The Revenant |
23% |
| Tom Hardy The Revenant |
20:1 | Mark Ruffalo Spotlight |
3% | Mark Ruffalo Spotlight |
9% |
Writing
Again, there is little suspense here, with both screenplay categories featuring overwhelming favorites. And the two pairs of writers favored to win will become first-time Oscar winners if they do indeed take home the statuettes.
Original Screenplay
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Singer/McCarthy Spotlight |
1:14 | Singer/McCarthy Spotlight |
97% | Singer/McCarthy Spotlight |
52% |
| Docter/LeFauve/Cooley Inside Out |
13:2 | Docter/LeFauve/Cooley Inside Out |
1% | Alex Garland Ex Machina |
19% |
| Charman/E. Coen/J. Coen Bridge of Spies |
22:1 | Herman/Berloff Straight Outta Compton |
1% | Docter/LeFauve/Cooley Inside Out |
15% |
Adapted Screenplay
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Randolph/McKay The Big Short |
1:14 | Randolph/McKay The Big Short |
97% | Randolph/McKay The Big Short |
44% |
| Emma Donoghue Room |
13:2 | Nick Hornby Brooklyn |
1% | Drew Goddard The Martian |
26% |
| Nick Hornby Brooklyn |
20:1 | Drew Goddard The Martian |
1% | Emma Donoghue Room |
17% |
Other films and shorts
The animated, documentary, and foreign-language categories appear to have little suspense this year. That is in line with recent trends toward clear favorites in those three categories, though this year's races seem even more settled than usual. The short film categories, meanwhile, continue to be the races that will make or break your Oscar pool. (Even when there is a strong consensus in the short film categories, it is often wrong, though last year the experts got all three races correct.)
Animated Feature
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Inside Out | 1:100 | Inside Out | 98% | Inside Out | 85% |
| Anomalisa | 16:1 | Anomalisa | 2% | Anomalisa | 9% |
| Shaun the Sheep | 28:1 | Shaun the Sheep | 2% | ||
Documentary Feature
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Amy | 1:5 | Amy | 95% | Amy | 50% |
| Cartel Land | 9:2 | The Look of Silence | 3% | The Look of Silence | 24% |
| The Look of Silence | 11:1 | Cartel Land | 2% | Cartel Land | 12% |
Foreign Language Film
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Son of Saul | 1:14 | Son of Saul | 94% | Son of Saul | 74% |
| Mustang | 13:2 | Mustang | 6% | A War | 10% |
| Embrace of the Serpent | 28:1 | Mustang | 7% | ||
Animated Short
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Sanjay's Super Team | 8:11 | Sanjay's Super Team | 46% | World of Tomorrow | 36% |
| World of Tomorrow | 11:8 | World of Tomorrow | 32% | Sanjay's Super Team | 22% |
| Bear Story | 8:1 | Bear Story | 22% | Bear Story | 19% |
Documentary Short
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Body Team 12 | 8:11 | Body Team 12 | 47% | Last Day of Freedom | 34% |
| Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah | 7:4 | Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah | 31% | Body Team 12 | 25% |
| A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness | 10:1 | A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness | 15% | A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness | 21% |
Live Action Short
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Ave Maria | 8:15 | Shok | 37% | Ave Maria | 27% |
| Shok | 3:1 | Ave Maria | 36% | Day One | 26% |
| Stutterer | 7:1 | Stutterer | 17% | Everything Will Be Okay | 20% |
Music
Legendary film composer Ennio Morricone has never won an Oscar. That should change on Sunday, as he appears to be a sure thing to convert his sixth nomination into a trophy. The original song category also appears to have little suspense, with Diane Warren and Lady Gaga's composition for the college sexual assault documentary The Hunting Ground looking like the winner.
Original Score
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Ennio Morricone The Hateful Eight |
1:6 | Ennio Morricone The Hateful Eight |
95% | Ennio Morricone The Hateful Eight |
59% |
| John Williams Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
7:2 | Carter Burwell Carol |
3% | John Williams Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
23% |
| Thomas Newman Bridge of Spies |
22:1 | Jóhann Jóhannsson Sicario |
2% | Jóhann Jóhannsson Sicario |
9% |
Original Song
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| "Til It Happens To You" The Hunting Ground |
4:11 | "Til It Happens To You" The Hunting Ground |
90% | "Writing's on the Wall" Spectre |
49% |
| "Writing's on the Wall" Spectre |
9:2 | "Writing's on the Wall" Spectre |
6% | "Til It Happens To You" The Hunting Ground |
23% |
| "Earned It" Fifty Shades of Grey |
13:2 | "Simple Song 3" Youth |
3% | "Earned It" Fifty Shades of Grey |
13% |
Technical categories
All three groups (oddsmakers, experts, users) are predicting a near-sweep of the technical categories by Mad Max: Fury Road (which could make that film the biggest winner on the night), though visual effects and costume design appear to be close races. One notable exception: Emmanuel Lubezki looks like a lock to take home an unprecedented third consecutive cinematography Oscar for his work on The Revenant.
Cinematography
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Emmanuel Lubezki The Revenant |
1:20 | Emmanuel Lubezki The Revenant |
100% | Emmanuel Lubezki The Revenant |
65% |
| John Seale Mad Max: Fury Road |
15:2 | John Seale Mad Max: Fury Road |
23% | ||
| Ed Lachman Carol |
33:1 | Roger Deakins Sicario |
5% | ||
| Roger Deakins Sicario |
33:1 | Robert Richardson The Hateful Eight |
4% | ||
Costume Design
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Mad Max: Fury Road | 10:11 | Mad Max: Fury Road | 42% | Mad Max: Fury Road | 58% |
| Cinderella | 5:2 | Cinderella | 34% | The Revenant | 12% |
| Carol | 10:3 | Carol | 18% | Carol | 11% |
Film Editing
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Margaret Sixel Mad Max: Fury Road |
2:9 | Margaret Sixel Mad Max: Fury Road |
82% | Margaret Sixel Mad Max: Fury Road |
54% |
| Hank Corwin The Big Short |
7:2 | Hank Corwin The Big Short |
15% | Stephen Mirrione The Revenant |
17% |
| Tom McArdle Spotlight |
16:1 | Stephen Mirrione The Revenant |
2% | Brandon/Markey Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
16% |
| Stephen Mirrione The Revenant |
16:1 | Brandon/Markey Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
2% | Hank Corwin The Big Short |
9% |
Makeup & Hairstyling
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Mad Max: Fury Road | 1:6 | Mad Max: Fury Road | 92% | Mad Max: Fury Road | 73% |
| The Revenant | 7:2 | The Revenant | 8% | The Revenant | 25% |
Production Design
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Mad Max: Fury Road | 1:12 | Mad Max: Fury Road | 94% | Mad Max: Fury Road | 62% |
| The Danish Girl | 14:1 | The Revenant | 3% | The Revenant | 19% |
| The Revenant | 16:1 | The Martian | 3% | The Martian | 12% |
Sound Editing
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Mad Max: Fury Road | 4:9 | Mad Max: Fury Road | 67% | Mad Max: Fury Road | 43% |
| The Revenant | 5:2 | The Revenant | 30% | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 32% |
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 8:1 | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 3% | The Revenant | 13% |
Sound Mixing
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Mad Max: Fury Road | 8:13 | Mad Max: Fury Road | 53% | Mad Max: Fury Road | 46% |
| The Revenant | 13:8 | The Revenant | 42% | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 33% |
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 10:1 | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 5% | The Revenant | 14% |
Visual Effects
| Betting Odds | Experts | Users | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 4:9 | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 48% | Mad Max: Fury Road | 43% |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | 13:8 | Mad Max: Fury Road | 34% | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 41% |
| The Revenant | 16:1 | The Revenant | 15% | The Revenant | 7% |
List of experts
The expert predictions compiled above come from the following sources (note that not every expert made picks in every category):
- Thelma Adams, Gold Derby
- Jason Bailey, Flavorwire
- James Berardinelli, ReelViews
- Richard Brody, The New Yorker
- Kyle Buchanan, Vulture
- Cara Buckley, The New York Times
- Ty Burr, Boston Globe
- Adam Chitwood, Collider
- Clayton Davis, Awards Circuit
- Edward Douglas, Coming Soon *
- A.A. Dowd, A.V. Club
- Gregory Ellwood, Awards Campaign
- Joyce Eng, TV Guide *
- Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter
- Flood Magazine staff, Flood Magazine
- Tim Gray, Variety *
- Pete Hammond, Deadline
- Ann Hornaday, Washington Post
- Rob Hunter, Film School Rejects
- Matthew Jacobs, Huffington Post *
- Dave Karger, Fandango *
- Tariq Khan, Fox News *
- Tomris Laffly, Film School Rejects
- Oliver Lyttelton, The Playlist
- Scott Mantz, Access Hollywood *
- Jack Mathews, Gold Derby
- Sean P. Means, The Salt Lake Tribune
- Stephanie Merry, Washington Post
- Scott Meslow, The Week
- Neil Miller, Film School Rejects
- Michael Musto, Out.com *
- Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby
- Michael O’Sullivan, Washington Post
- Mark Olsen, Los Angeles Times **
- Christopher Orr, The Atlantic
- Janice Page, Boston Globe
- Steve Persall, Tampa Bay Times
- Michael Phillips, Chicago Tribune
- David Poland, Movie City News
- Kevin Polowy, Yahoo Movies
- Steve Pond, TheWrap
- Mara Reinstein, Us Weekly
- Christopher Rosen, Entertainment Weekly *
- Joshua Rothkopf, TimeOut
- Mike Sampson, ScreenCrush
- Mike Scott, New Orleans Times-Picayune
- Paul Sheehan, Gold Derby
- Tom Shone, Intelligent Life (published on blog)
- Keith Simanton, IMDb *
- Piya Sinha-Roy, Reuters *
- Matt Singer, ScreenCrush
- Slant staff, Slant
- Slashfilm staff consensus, Slashfilm
- Nicole Sperling, Entertainment Weekly
- Sasha Stone, Awards Daily *
- Kristopher Tapley, Variety (In Contention)
- Anne Thompson, Thompson on Hollywood
- Brian Truitt, USA Today *
- Todd VanDerWerff, Vox
- Vanity Fair staff (Richard Lawson/Katey Rich/Michael Hogan), Vanity Fair
- Adam B. Vary, BuzzFeed
- Adnan Virk, ESPN *
- Jeffrey Wells, Hollywood Elsewhere *
- Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times
- Erin Whitney, ScreenCrush
- Susan Wloszczyna, RogerEbert.com *
- Ben Zauzmer, The Hollywood Reporter
Check our site Monday morning for the final results as we reveal which users and experts had the most accurate predictions. We'll also collect reviews of the broadcast from TV critics.
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