TV Cancellation Watch: Which Shows Are on the Bubble?

The latest predictions from TV industry experts

While the networks won't officially announce their 2012-13 primetime schedules until the week of May 14, the renewal chances of many current series are becoming clearer as we near the end of the TV season. What are the chances that each of the remaining bubble shows will return for another year? To answer that question, we have compiled the most recent renew/cancel predictions from six sources:

• EW - Entertainment Weekly Inside TV blog (Lynette Rice and James Hibberd)
• HuffPo - Huffington Post TV
• Spoiler - SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor Table
• TVbtN bw - TV by the Numbers Bubble Watch (Robert Seidman)
• TVbtN rc - TV by the Numbers Renew/Cancel Index (Bill Gorman)
• TVLine - TVLine's 2012 Renewal Scorecard

ABC

Alone among the five broadcast networks, ABC has yet to renew a single primetime show despite having a few sure things to choose from (starting with Modern Family and also including successes ranging from first-year hit Once Upon a Time to veteran Grey's Anatomy). The network has announced the end of five series, however, while at least two more—freshman dramas The River and Pan Am—look certain to follow (though an official cancellation has yet to come). The struggling Missing also seems likely to be just that on next year's schedule.

That leaves several shows whose futures are a bit murkier. This bubble group includes a pair of Shonda Rhimes shows, Private Practice and the new Scandal, as well as the acclaimed but struggling Cougar Town, first-year soap GCB, and second-year medical crime drama Body of Proof. Out of this group, only Private Practice seems to have a fighting chance at another season. Cougar Town fans should not get their hopes up, as the comedy's spring return has been accompanied by the show's lowest ratings to date.

Late arrival Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23, which premiered last night, performed fairly well in its opener, with numbers comparable to previous timeslot occupant Happy Endings (a show considered likely to be renewed). That makes the well reviewed new sitcom a potential survivor, assuming no major drop-off over the next few weeks.

ABC Primetime Programs, 2011-2012 Season

Show	Expert Predictions
	EW	HuffPo	Spoiler	TVbtN bw	TVbtN rc	TVLine
Fate to be determined:
America's Funniest Home Videos
The Bachelor/Bachelorette
Body of Proof
Castle
Cougar Town
Dancing with the Stars
Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23	Too soon to tell (premiered this week)
GCB
Grey's Anatomy
Happy Endings
Last Man Standing
The Middle
Missing
Modern Family
Once Upon a Time
Pan Am			*	*	*
Private Practice
Revenge
The River
Scandal
Secret Millionaire
Shark Tank
Suburgatory
Wife Swap
Wipeout
You Deserve It
Already renewed:
(none)
Canceled or ending:
Charlie's Angels	CANCELED: 7 of 8 episodes aired; remaining episode unlikely to air
Desperate Housewives	ENDING: Series finale will air in May
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition	ENDED: All episodes have aired; show may return as occasional specials
Man Up!	CANCELED: 8 of 13 episodes aired; remaining episodes available on Hulu
Work It	CANCELED: Pulled from schedule after 2 episodes; will not return

Key to predictions:
Likely renewal   Possible renewal   Could go either way   Possible cancellation   Likely cancellation
* Pan Am is considered already canceled by several experts, though ABC has not made an official announcement.

CBS

Taking the opposite approach of ABC, ratings leader CBS has announced early renewals for much of its current lineup, leaving the statuses of just a handful of shows up in the air with a month left to go in the season. Of these remaining bubble shows, only Two and a Half Men has the ratings to justify renewal (and, in fact, would be a sure thing were it not for Ashton Kutcher's uncertain contract status for next season).

It's also hard to completely rule out a return for Rules of Engagement, which has somehow avoided cancellation for six seasons so far, while experts seem unable to come to a consensus on the renewal chances for the underwhelming first-year drama Unforgettable. The decent ratings (in spite of terrible reviews) for new sitcom Rob would make it a likely keeper on any other network, but the show is an underperformer by CBS standards and may not return (especially if Engagement does get a seventh season). And it looks like at least one (if not both) of the two CSI spinoffs could finally draw to a close this season, while first-year drama A Gifted Man needs a miracle to secure a second season. The success of rookie cop drama NYC 22 (which debuts this weekend) will also impact the dramas still on the bubble.

CBS Primetime Programs, 2011-2012 Season

Show	Expert Predictions
	EW	HuffPo	Spoiler	TVbtN bw	TVbtN rc	TVLine
Fate to be determined:
CSI: Miami
CSI: New York
A Gifted Man
NYC 22	Premieres Sunday, April 15
Rob
Rules of Engagement
Two and a Half Men
Unforgettable
Already renewed:
2 Broke Girls	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
The Amazing Race	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
The Big Bang Theory	RENEWED through 2013-14 season
Blue Bloods	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Criminal Minds	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
CSI: Crime Scene Investigation	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
The Good Wife	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Hawaii Five-0	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
How I Met Your Mother	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
The Mentalist	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Mike & Molly	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
NCIS	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
NCIS: Los Angeles	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Person of Interest	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Survivor	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Undercover Boss	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Canceled or ending:
How to Be a Gentleman	CANCELED: 3 of 9 episodes aired; remaining episodes unlikely to air

The CW

With only America's Next Top Model guaranteed to return in the fall, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the CW's primetime lineup, especially given that its slate of pilots now in development is reportedly strong (by CW standards, at least). Still, Supernatural (with a new showrunner) and The Vampire Diaries seem locks for renewal, while Sarah Michelle Gellar's first-year series Ringer is nearly certain to be canceled.

The Secret Circle and 90210 also have decent shots at renewal, while Gossip Girl, though struggling, could also return for a concluding season. Renewal seems a more remote possibility for Hart of Dixie and Nikita, however. While experts also were uncertain about the latter show's renewal chances at this point last year, they seem much less optimistic this year.

CW Primetime Programs, 2011-2012 Season

Show	Expert Predictions
	EW	HuffPo	Spoiler	TVbtN bw	TVbtN rc	TVLine
Fate to be determined:
90210
Gossip Girl
Hart of Dixie
Nikita
Remodeled
Ringer
The Secret Circle
Supernatural
The Vampire Diaries
Already renewed:
America's Next Top Model	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Canceled or ending:
H8R	CANCELED: Pulled from schedule after 4 episodes; remaining episodes unlikely to air
One Tree Hill	ENDING: Series finale to air in April

Fox

Like CBS, Fox has eliminated the uncertainty for much of its current lineup by already renewing a dozen shows. Of the remaining scripted programs yet to hear such good news, however, only Touch has a strong chance of returning, though things are not as grim for Fringe as they were a few months ago; in recent weeks, there have been rumblings about a final 13-episode season for the JJ Abrams-produced show despite declining ratings. The reason for the optimism is that Abrams' other Fox drama, Alcatraz, has been declining in viewership to the point that is has become a near-certain cancellation target.

First-year animated comedy Napoleon Dynamite is solidly on the bubble, though its chances could improve if Fox decides not to pick up fellow cartoon Bob's Burgers for another run. (The latter show, however, should return next season either way, as the network has held back some of the 22 episodes originally planned for the current season.) On much less solid footing is Bones spinoff The Finder, which has been banished to Fridays since an inconsistent (though occasionally decent) run earlier this year.

Though it's not yet reflected in the predictions listed below, Fox announced yesterday that it was pulling all remaining episodes of the Christian Slater comedy Breaking In from its schedule, effectively canceling the series. (The three unaired episodes may be shown at a later date.)

Fox Primetime Programs, 2011-2012 Season

Show	Expert Predictions
	EW	HuffPo	Spoiler	TVbtN bw	TVbtN rc	TVLine
Fate to be determined:
Alcatraz
American Idol
Breaking In
The Finder
Fringe
Mobbed
Napoleon Dynamite
Touch
Already renewed:
American Dad	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Bob's Burgers	WILL RETURN; some 2nd season episodes held back to 2012-13 season
Bones	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
The Cleveland Show	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Family Guy	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Glee	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Hell's Kitchen	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Kitchen Nightmares	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
New Girl	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Raising Hope	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
The Simpsons	RENEWED through 2014-15 season
The X Factor	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Canceled or ending:
Allen Gregory	CANCELED: All 7 episodes have aired
House	ENDING: Series finale will air on May 21
I Hate My Teenage Daughter	EFFECTIVELY CANCELED: Pulled from sched.; remaining episodes will air in June
Terra Nova	CANCELED: All 13 episodes have aired

NBC

The peacock network has renewed just two shows so far: freshman dramas Grimm and Smash. And while the network's low ratings across the board (and large number of shows overall) make predicting the fates of the remaining series a bit tricky, a few things are clear heading into the final month of the season.

One is that much of the network's midseason schedule, including Awake, Bent, Best Friends Forever, and Are You There Chelsea, was a failure; it's extremely likely that none of those first-year programs will return next season. (The same goes for returning drama Harry's Law, which has continued to repel the coveted 18-49 demographic since moving to Sundays this spring.) On the other hand, veterans like 30 Rock, Parks & Recreation, The Office (assuming it survives the loss of its showrunner and several cast members), Parenthood, Law & Order: SVU, and, yes, even Community, should be back in the fall, though the latter is by no means a lock.

That leaves two first-year comedies squarely in bubble territory. Up All Night has the benefit of better reviews, while Whitney typically had more viewers. Either, both, or neither could return in the fall, and Community has the edge over both of those shows thanks to being much closer to syndication.

NBC Primetime Programs, 2011-2012 Season

Show	Expert Predictions
	EW	HuffPo	Spoiler	TVbtN bw	TVbtN rc	TVLine
Fate to be determined:
30 Rock
The Apprentice
Are You There, Chelsea?
Awake
Bent
Best Friends Forever
Betty White's Off Their Rockers
The Biggest Loser
Community
Fashion Star
Harry's Law
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
The Office
Parenthood
Parks and Recreation
Rock Center with Brian Williams
The Sing-Off
Up All Night
The Voice
Whitney
Who Do You Think You Are?
Who's Still Standing?
Already renewed:
Grimm	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Smash	RENEWED through 2012-13 season
Canceled or ending:
Chuck	ENDED: All episodes have aired
The Firm	EFFECTIVELY CANCELED: NBC is burning off remaining episodes on Saturdays
Free Agents	CANCELED: 4 of 8 episodes have aired; remaining episodes available on Hulu
The Playboy Club	CANCELED: Pulled after 3 episodes aired; will not return
Prime Suspect	CANCELED: All episodes have aired

What do you think?

What bubble shows would you like to see return, and which deserve to be canceled? Let us know in the comments section below.